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The Data Is Playing Along
The data is playing along.
Knock on wood. Famous last words. And all the usual caveats.
It's funny -- whatever we say prior to Thursday will be dismissed as ludicrous or, at best, irrelevant, if the June jobs report disappoints. So, there's a certain futility in even talking about the incoming data in the days leading up to nonfarm payrolls.
Read more: Hopefully, So Far, For Now
This is even more true given how critical the June headline print will be in the debate around whether to preserve
Wondering out loud if data surprises in the US–167.40 on CESIUSD, mean revert what that means for risk assets, It tends to track SPX/bond return fairly well. It is also highly mean reverting and can be modeled/predicted with a Sine Wave. This is pointing down. This might be the larger problem than hyperventilating over the virus comeback in Texas.
The “percent change after a record low/high” seems an odd way for mainstream media to present (sensationalize!) facts/numbers. Usually YoY seems more time normalized given the circumstances.
I also wonder if there’s more accurate data than surveys in this highly connected world; example where the BLS unemployment knows there’s a 3% error (unemployed but the employee is “sure it’s temporary”).
Couldn’t we just daily/weekly aggregate all the payrolls? (they all have to pay taxes and SSI so it’s not exactly private info)…