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From Beijing To Tokyo To Iran To Florida, COVID Mounts A Comeback
In "The Rally’s Next Hurdle: A Wave Of ‘Second Wave’ Coverage", I talked about the likelihood that market participants will be inundated with tales of rising COVID infection rates over the next several weeks.
This is obviously a delicate subject. The media is obliged to cover any resurgence in the virus, not just because that "sells" (either figuratively or literally) but because it's in the best interest of the public. People need to be informed so they can avoid getting sick, etc.
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Marko Kolanovic really hit the nail on the head when he warned about the dangers of politicizing COVID. Due to political reasons, the US is having difficulty balancing the economy and public health, even though many parts of Asia have shown that it’s entirely possible to do so.
For example, Hong Kong has a population size and density similar to NYC, but they’ve literally only have had 4 deaths from COVID. Taiwan has a population of 24 million and only 7 deaths. South Korea has a population of 51 million and only 277 deaths in spite of a full blown outbreak from a church cluster. Singapore has 26 deaths total, and Vietnam has 0. What’s even more remarkable is that Hong Kong, Taiwan, and South Korea never even went into full lock down.
What Asia has shown is that it’s completely possible for economies to coexist with COVID even in the absence of a vaccine as long as 1) the government conducts mass testing and aggressive contact tracing and 2) the population complies with social distancing and mask wearing.
They wear masks, don’t they.
Zhang: “As long as each and every one of us do our jobs well, and stay aware of personal hygiene and protect [ourselves and each other] in our daily lives, we will be able to keep ourselves safe and keep our cities free from a second wave of infections and virus spread”.
What you and Saul are both describing is the value of highly disciplined self sacrifice to a regimen not fully normal but a good compromise. A society that has taught itself for many years that everyone has a “right” to “have it all” is not so good at such compromise any more.
Everything is looked at through a political lens these days. This is not news
We badly need another JFK in these times.
I’ll throw my hat in for another Che Guevara.
In the US the percentage moves are eye catching but the absolute numbers are very small.
I looked at the numbers in a couple states.
Texas:
New cases/day now 60 per 1MM population. Up from 40/1MM a few weeks ago. It’s a 50% jump, from 0.004% of the population to 0.006%.
Texas doesn’t report hospitalizations, at least not at state level.
Deaths/day has been stuck at about 0.7/1MM for many weeks. 0.00007% of the population.
Arizona:
New cases/day now 110 per 1MM population. Up from 50/1MM a few weeks ago. It’s >100% jump, from 0.005% of the population to 0.01%.
New hospitalizations/day now 7/1MM. Down from 20/1MM a few weeks ago, up from 3-4/1MM before that. In percent of population, went from 0.0003% to 0.002% to 0.0007%.
Deaths/day has been in the 2-4/1MM for many weeks. 0.0002% to 0.0004% of the population.
Oregon:
New cases/day now 30 per 1MM population. Up from 15/1MM a few weeks ago. It’s 100% jump, from 0.0015% of the population to 0.003%.
New hospitalizations/day now 2/1MM. Up from about 1/1MM before that. In percent of population, went from 0.0001% to 0.0002%.
Deaths/day has been around 0.5/1MM for many weeks. 0.00005% of the population.
(Data from https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/ using 1 wk averages.)
So, the picture I see:
– New cases are increasing, but at extremely low levels.
– Hospitalizations ditto.
– Death rate is not increasing, when it does, that too will be from extremely low levels.
Separately, the estimated R for these states is in the 1.1—1.2 range, reflecting slow infection growth.
What conclusion? For me, it is that the number of infections in these states is at such a low level that their governments have the choice to look for another way to control viral spread, other than continuing or reinstating shutdowns. Such as obligatory mask laws, intensified testing and contact tracing, aggressive infection protocols at the sources of a large % of infections (workplaces like food packing, nursing homes), isolating infected persons or their vulnerable family members in hotels (staycation at the Ritz, with room service!).
Not just the choice, but the obligation.
The shutdowns were necessary and wise, but their purpose was not to eradicate the virus but to buy governments three months to put those other measures in place.