Another 1.5 million Americans filed for unemployment benefits last week, casting doubt on the notion that the labor market is in fact poised for a “V-shaped” recovery.
The figures suggest the country’s economic crisis rolls on for Main Street, if not for Wall Street, where stocks erased losses for the year this week, before backtracking a bit, and appearing poised for a deep selloff on Thursday.
At 1,542,000, the latest jobless claims print is essentially in line with consensus, which was looking for 1.55 million. Last week’s total was revised up to 1,897,000 from 1,877,000.
The four-week moving average is now down to “just” 2 million (yellow line in the visual).
A week ago, the market was disappointed to learn that continuing claims rose after falling the previous week. That seemed to suggest the “silver lining” in the otherwise dour numbers had disappeared. The latest figures show continuing claims dropping to 20.93 million, down 339,000, but that appears to have missed estimates. The market was hoping to see a bigger decline.
Over the course of the crisis, more than 44 million Americans have filed.
Every week, it’s the same story. The trend is lower, but this is a disaster of epic proportions. It cannot be stated often enough.
Tens of millions of lives were interrupted, and there is no clarity on when (or even if) “normal” will make a comeback.
We are now more than three months into the deepest downturn in a century and claims are still multiples of the previous weekly record set in 1982.
The above can be set against the upbeat May jobs report, which the White House pitched as indicative of “the greatest comeback in American history”.
Maybe that comeback will continue apace, but the latest jobless claims figures don’t exactly scream “V-shaped”, let alone “great again”.
