economy Markets

Farmer Sentiment Wipes Out All Trump-Era Gains In Stunning Two-Month Plunge

Domino effect.

The farmers are restless. For a second consecutive month, the Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer plummeted, reflecting extreme consternation in the agricultural community about the state of the US economy and the impact of coronavirus on their operations. The index's decline over the past two months marks a stunning fall from grace. At 96, the gauge is 72 points from its record high set in February. April's reading marked the first sub-100 print since October 2016. The slump "effectively wipes out all of the improvement in farmer sentiment that took place following the 2016 election", Purdue notes. The latest survey was conducted from April 19 through April 24. COVID-19 dealt a generalized shock to the food supply chain, and there's been no shortage of headlines about surging beef and pork prices as a result of shutdowns at meat processing plants across America. Some argue that's a preview of what's coming. This is part and parcel of a spirited debate over whether the current circumstances are conducive to an outright deflationary spiral or just a setup for the return of inflation in the developed world sometime down the road. As you ponder this (and as you pe
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10 comments on “Farmer Sentiment Wipes Out All Trump-Era Gains In Stunning Two-Month Plunge

  1. A poll I saw last night had Trump leading Biden by 2 points in Iowa. How in the hell can that be? People voting against their own interest get what they deserve.

  2. And $45 for a cap that looks like an equivalent John Deere cap sans logo that elsewhere sells for $15. Somewhat insulting to John Deere.
    Just looked at the DBA chart back to 2007. Feel bad for independently run farm operators trying to make a go of it.

    • That’s exactly what it is. He ripped off the Deere hat, then tripled the price. Which, I mean, is exactly like what you’d expect he would do when pondering how to go about making a MAGA line for farmers.

  3. In the 70s80s 90s Union members voted anti-union for moral reasons(or so it seems to voters). People vote something they can have an opinion on in a simple way. At some point the only opinion is the checkbook. I was thinking Trump wanted new tariff money so he could finally get around to paying them off. This will play into some States getting monies. The numbers in the last trade bill never made sense to me ,it was a truce. Way things are now he make be stuck with the deal. Even Jim Cramer told him don’t you dare tariff. He mentioned and backtracked blocking Euro imports. He may have planned on lots of tariff money from everywhere spread out as need be before the election. Not a bad business plan if all you care about is a win.Bulk of the money comes from consumers who do not vote him anyhow.

  4. Eventually bad policies and poor governance come back to bite incumbents. An unpredictable virus also brings a lot of uncertainty as well. I am not writing off trump yet; however, the spread of outcomes now looks like 1/3 chance trump squeaks by, 1/3 chance biden wins a close election, and 1/3 chance that trump loses in a blowout and takes the GOP down with him- Senate GOP losses could be in the double digits in that scenario- think politicos like McConnnell, Cronwin (TX sp?), Joni Ernst, Loeffler in Ga., Lindsay Graham, and a bunch of others you would not expect. This presents a wide divergence of outcomes in both politics and economics which is why it is so hard to invest with longer than a one week time horizon right now.

    • “I’ll take door no. 3, Monte.”

    • RIA, I used to agree with your main premise, which would make your stated probabilities reasonable.

      However, over the last 12 years, I have learned not to underestimate the power of widespread ignorance and small-mindedness.

      Despite everything that’s going on, November will be a coin toss.

      Harvey Dent would love it…

  5. If it’s a toss-up that speaks volumes about the intelligence of at least half of the American voters. (And it’s a reflection of the American school system.)

    • Man of Lourdes: Yes agreed. Notice that I did describe the ignorance and small-mindedness as “widespread”. #MAGA

  6. George Carlin: “Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups”

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