“We would want to see, I would want to see a clear indication that you are very, very clearly and strongly going in the right direction, because the one thing you don’t want to do is you don’t want to get out there, prematurely, and then wind up and you’re back in the same situation”, Anthony Fauci told CNN, as questions linger about the administration’s commitment to keeping social distancing and other containment protocols in place long enough to ensure the country has moved beyond the apex of the coronavirus outbreak.
Rumblings of a May 1 “reopening” date for the world’s largest economy are getting louder amid tentative signs that New York (the US epicenter) may be past the peak. That’s not to say that anyone in the White House believes New York City itself (or any large metropolitan areas for that matter) will be back to “normal” in a matter of weeks. It’s just to say that with the “hot spots” seemingly “cooling”, those angling for a quick restart of economic activity in low-risk areas spared the the brunt of the viral storm will be emboldened.
On Friday, Gov. Andrew Cuomo said the number of New Yorkers in intensive care fell by 17 from Thursday, the first daily drop since the outbreak began. Just one week ago, the number of ICU patients was growing by some 300 per day. The death toll (a lagging indicator) continues to rise. Statewide fatalities hit 7,844 on Friday. But even daily deaths seem to have leveled off, and the hospitalization curve is essentially flat, growing at just 1% per day, versus more than 20% two weeks back.
And yet, the total number of cases continues to rise, of course – as it does across the country.
The US now has nearly a third of the world’s cases, and triple the number of infections of the next highest nation. If New York state were a country, it would have the second-highest confirmed case total in the world behind only the US as a whole.
On Friday, just hours before Donald Trump held his daily virus task force media event (which devolved into the usual bickering between the president and reporters), The New York Times released a set of projections from the departments of Homeland Security and Health and Human Services.
The forecasts cite a trio of scenarios. To wit, from the slides (embedded in full below):
Steady State assumes school closures until summer, 25 % of people telework , and there is some social distancing.
The Steady State + 30 Day shelter- in place scenario has a greater rebound peak after the mitigation is relaxed (assuming further shelter-in -place policies are not implemented to reduce future peaks) than steady state.
The third scenario is labeled “unmitigated”.
Frankly, the slides aren’t all that useful in terms of telling the public anything most Americans didn’t already know, but the gist of the scenario analysis seems to be that in a situation where there are no mitigation measures, and using a parameter described as “best guess”, infections would rise as high as 195 million with 300,000 deaths. Again, the following visual is derived from government projections published by The Times, which are embedded below. You’re encouraged to view them for yourself. All I’ve done is put them into a spreadsheet.
In a scenario where, following a 30-day shelter-in-place order, schools are closed until the summer, a quarter of Americans telework and “some” social distancing remains in place, cases could still rise to 160 million with nearly three-quarters of a million ICU patients and 200,000 deaths, based on my read of the forecasts.
“The model foresees a bump in the demand for ventilators… 30 days after stay-at-home orders are issued, a major spike in infections about 100 days after, and peaking 150 days after the initial order assuming further shelter-in-place policies are not implemented to reduce future peaks”, The Times writes, interpreting the sparse information from the slides.
“For most states that implemented stay-at-home orders in late March, including New York City, Massachusetts and Illinois, that spike would come in mid to late summer”, their reporting goes on to note.
In recent days, the administration has walked back estimates of the death toll from the virus from the lower-end of the initial 100,000-240,000 range to as low as 60,000.
Trump on Friday described the decision on when to reopen the economy as “the biggest he’s ever had to make”.
“We’re looking at a date, we hope we’ll be able to fulfill a certain date, but we’re not doing anything until we know this country is going to be healthy”, he promised. “We don’t want to go back and start doing it over again, even though it would be in a smaller scale”.
“I have a big decision coming up”, the president went on to remark, after an unusually introspective assessment of how things might have played out both for America and for himself had he not locked down the country.
“And I only hope to God that’s it’s the right decision”, he added.
I think keeping an eye on the Florida numbers will give a good idea of when he becomes more prone to “re-opening”
Illinois and Fla will be good comparisons.
And that man needs a couple of rounds of golf…….. now would be good. Would benefit all.
Good Friday
What he thinks is the “appropriate “ time has no bearing on what this country should be doing. Not only can’t you take this moron seriously, but congress should be working on a plan to remove him immediately. We need tests,tests,tests, and then a plan to open up gradually only when we’ve proven that the virus has virtually disappeared. His obsession with the market and subsequent reelection are the clear motivating factors behind all the misinformation and lies. Isn’t everyone tired of this charade?
Everybody knows Trump wants the coming confrontation on opening the economy.
Everybody knows he knows this year will be a disaster.
Everybody knows if he pushes for “opening” but the states resist,
Everybody knows he can blame the recession and the worsening unemployment on them,
And Everybody knows he can say it would’ve been better if only they had listened to him.
Everybody knows.
Everybody knows that the boat is leaking
Everybody knows that the Trumpster lied
Everybody got this broken feeling
Like their father or their dog just died
Everybody talking to their pockets
Everybody wants a box of chocolates
And a long-stem rose
Everybody knows
Like
Amazing!
Everybody knows he’ll cancel the 2020 election..
That’s Colonel Bonespurs for ya!
Hope everyone is adjusting to our new lifestyle, because this situation is going to drag on for a much longer period of time than anyone wants to openly admit in public.
Per VP Pence and Dr. Fauci, anything resembling a true “re-opening” will require…
(1) Widespread, easily-available virus testing with quick results reporting (…so, we need 100 million+, manufactured, shipped, and appropriately distributed so there are no shortages or hiccups anywhere in the country).
(2) Widespread, easily-available, SAFE therapeutic treatments for those who still catch the bug (…again, millions of doses manufactured, shipped, appropriately distributed, etc.)
(3) Widespread and EFFICIENT surveillance, contact tracing, quarantining, reporting, etc.
(4) Widespread ACCURATE data sharing between nations where the virus is present (…that is, basically ALL nations on this planet), so that travel and border crossings can be effectively monitored and secured.
(5) Widespread cooperation amongst all the good people of this country to abide by the rules, with no shirking and no slacking.
Sounds simple, right?
6 weeks into this mess and we still can’t get basic testing capacity up to speed on a nationwide basis.
Summer vacation will probably consist of a backyard BBQ with members of your household.
Enjoy!
Dana thanks. Big chuckle….. This may prove to be… sell in May and go away.
I’ve got to believe that companies working on the testing and the vaccine are working very hard on providing these necessities all over the world. There’s a lot of money to be made out there. Everybody needs it. If we have the testing (with quick turn-around results) and contact tracing and everyone wearing masks until the vaccines are given en-masse I think we can get on top of this and pretty much get back to the new normal. Will all that be in place when Trump tries to restart the economy. Probably far from it. He’s not moved by the needs of the citizenry as much as by the needs of the rich.
Man of Lourdes,
OK, if not in place by the time of Trump’s restart, then an eventual Shutdown 2.0 is a certainty.
Seems like there’s only one way to get this right, and dozens of ways to get it wrong.
Given this administration’s track record, I don’t think those particular odds are in their favor.
#Shit-Show Inc. 2020