The fallout from the coronavirus epidemic on the US economy began to show up in the data on Monday.
The New York Fed’s Empire gauge fell an astonishing 34.4 points to -21.5 for March. That’s the lowest since 2009 and the largest monthly drop in history.
The headline print is a mile below the most pessimistic estimate from more than three-dozen economists. The range was -10.0 to 10.0.
“Twenty percent of respondents reported that conditions had improved over the month, while 42 percent reported that conditions had worsened”, the New York Fed said, adding that “the new orders index turned negative, falling thirty-one points to -9.3”.
The outlook is dire, indeed.
“Firms no longer expect general business conditions to be better over the next six months”, the release reads. “The index for future business conditions declined twenty-two points to 1.2, its lowest level since 2009”.
This is just the beginning, folks. These figures are going to get worse. As noted first thing Monday morning, the longest US expansion in history is now over. There is no question about it.
The only question is whether gridlock inside the Beltway prevents the US from marshaling the full resources of the federal government to assist those who will be waylaid by the recession. It’s true that the downturn will likely prove fleeting, but by all indications, it will be deep.
The New York Fed said a supplemental survey report on the initial effects of Coronavirus will be released March 17.
Read more: ‘This Is War’. Analysts Pile On As Virus Lockdowns Presage ‘Domino-Style Economic Collapse’
