Already have an account? log in
This article is FREE for you
Create a free account and join institutional investors, analysts and strategists from the world's largest banks
By submitting your email address you agree to receive communication by email
A Corona(virus) Gets Its Lime
The death toll from the coronavirus keeps rising in China, and the World Health Organization is cons
OR, subscribe now for unlimited access
By submitting your email address you agree to receive communication by email
By submitting your email address you agree to receive communication by email
Rate cuts and financial stimulus is not going to feed the populations who are cut off from markets and food supplies. I heard on Bloomberg that the Chinese govt is urging farmers to plant fast growing crops for human consumption.
I think there are multiple shoes to drop yet.
correction “are not”
Yikes.
Things look very bad, and I afraid tomorrow they will look even worse.
This is a classical black swan. Very black and very… swanish.
Concerning is that these numbers have not been updated in more than 12 hours. If they were improving, wouldn’t China say so?
Additionally, the current death to recovery ratio is almost 3:2. Yesterday morning it was 1:1. Probably too early to make a pronouncement on that stat, but currently not as good as the “less people dying than annual flu” comments would lead you to believe.
I’d be interesting in a medical opinion on that ratio.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
There’s still too much travel occurring. And the quarantines, while impressive in scope, are more for public show than actually stopping it. Otherwise, you wouldn’t see the scramble to fast-track the vaccine, which is not cheap or without risk to the pharmaceutical companies. You can end up with a major loss by being wrong (a little research will back that up). The wuflu is going global, sooner rather than later. It’s just too communicable. They were late in trying to contain it. And they allowed a sizable number to leave Wuhan.
Not trying to be Mr Doom-n-Gloom. But once it starts getting a foothold in other countries, I think you’re going to see a shift in quarantine strategies. Rather than trying to keep it out of the country, which will be ultimately fruitless, they’ll shift to a more community-based approach. i.e. accepting the inevitable and trying to manage it internally. It’s going to rattle a lot of people though. Change always does. But we’ll get through it.
How it effects the market? I have no idea. I’ve always sucked at that. If you feel bold and want to profit on the misery of others, you might add some stock in GTLS, INGN, IVC, and PHG. They’re makers of respiratory equipment. I think they’re a safer bet than the pharmaceuticals or MMM for N95 masks (they make too many other products). The real danger in all of this is an overworked health care system, which doesn’t have a ton of spare beds to begin with, becomes overwhelmed by the volume of cases. And a case that’s “severe” (15-20%) but treatable (in a normal world) becomes “life threatening” when there’s no bed, staff, or oxygen machine available. I have a hard time pulling the trigger on that trade though. It’s making a killing on a killing.