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JPMorgan Asks: Is This The January 2018 Melt-Up All Over Again?'s not hard to create scary-looking visuals.

At various intervals over the past two weeks, we (and plenty of others) have conjured the post-tax-cut melt-up in January of 2018 to describe the state of the US equity market. That's not necessarily an attempt to "get bearish", as it were. Rather, it's just an observation. Obviously, not all indicators will validate that comparison, but it's not hard to create scary-looking visuals. Here, look: And we could generate a dozen others. In the latest edition of the bank's popular "Flows & Liquidity" series, JPMorgan takes a look at precisely this comparison (i.e., between now and January of 2018) and comes to broadly similar conclusions - namely that there are signs of "overextension", even if that doesn't necessarily presage any kind of rout. The bank's Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou notes that institutional investors continued to ramp up their exposure at year end. "These positions had risen steeply last year, propelling the equity market during the course of 2019, with an additional steep increase in December", he writes, adding that "as a result, these spec positions on US equity futures stand at even higher levels than the beginning of 2018". (JPMorgan) Meanwhile, short in
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2 comments on “JPMorgan Asks: Is This The January 2018 Melt-Up All Over Again?

  1. What’s really going to cook everyone’s noodle is when in May/June after the risk asset overreaction to a progressive candidate leading for the D nomination, is everyone will talk themselves into the idea that the progressive candidate’s pro-consumer class policies will drive economic growth (because it will, just not in time to stave off the impending recession caused by the past 2 years of moronic fiscal and tax policy on top of 25 years of questionable fiscal and tax policy).

  2. Anonymous says:

    Horrible to be a true HF manager. Does’t pay to hedge and every sale for the past 3 months was pretty much a bad sale.

    It is a different world…………. Not much fun.

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