The US economy looks set to coast through December expanding at a moderate pace, the flash reads on IHS Markit’s PMIs suggest.
Data out Monday finds the manufacturing gauge printing 52.5 in the preliminary read for this month, down ever so slightly from November’s seven-month high of 52.6. Output fell a bit, as did new orders.
The services gauge printed 52.2. That’s a bit better than November (51.6) and pretty much in line with estimates (52). It’s also the highest since July.
“The surveys bring welcome signs of the economy continuing to regain growth momentum as 2019 draws to a close, with the outlook also brightening to fuel hopes of a strong start to 2020”, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, said, adding that “business activity, order book and jobs growth all accelerated to five-month highs in December, buoyed by rising domestic sales and further signs of renewed life in export orders”.
Still, questions around “who” is “right” on the factory sector will likely persist until ISM either catches up to Markit’s gauge or the other way around. The disparity between the two is notable (there are surely folks who have a better read on this than us, but the chart cries out for an explanation).
And besides, the Markit releases have come with what seems like an obligatory caveat over the past several months.
“The brighter news needs to be caveated, as the overall rate of economic expansion signaled by the surveys remains well below that seen this time last year, commensurate with GDP rising at an annualized rate of just over 1.5%”, Williamson adds.
As we’re fond of putting it in these pages, it’s good, but not “great” – “again”, or otherwise.
