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S&P 5,300, Bear Market ‘Signposts’ And The Persistence Of The ‘Exceptional’

"Stimulus unwind [is] especially tricky".

"Stimulus unwind [is] especially tricky".
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2 comments on “S&P 5,300, Bear Market ‘Signposts’ And The Persistence Of The ‘Exceptional’

  1. About 5% over the next 10 years? Add almost 2% dividend = 7% or am I missing something.

  2. jyl says:

    From 2004 to 2018, SP500 sales/share grew about 4%/yr. That is pretty close to US nominal GDP growth over the period. SP500 net margin rose from 8.4% to 10.9%, with the tax cuts adding about 100bp to get us to that 2018 record level. That resulted in about 6%/yr earnings/share growth. Note this is per share, so already includes the impact of share buybacks. Over that period, the SP500 price has grown by about 7%/yr.

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