On the docket this week is a bevy of key economic data and too many Fed speakers to count, but both the numbers and America’s monetary policymakers will have to shout to have their figurative and literal voices heard above the cacophony emanating from Washington D.C., where the Trump administration is trying to put out a bonfire with a water pistol.
While the market waits on ISM and September payrolls, MNI’s Chicago factory gauge served up a bitter appetizer, printing 47.1 for the month, nearly 3 handles below consensus.
This means the gauge has now tumbled back into contraction territory after bouncing back above the 50 line in August.
Last month’s 50.4 reading was a relief, coming as it did on the heels of two consecutive abysmal prints which served to stoke recession fears over the summer.
Drilling down briefly (because exactly nobody cares about this on Monday) the September survey looks bad, on balance. New orders and backlogs sank, joining gauges for employment, inventories and production in contraction territory. Prices paid rose, as did supplier deliveries.
Here’s hoping this isn’t a preview of what’s coming later this week in the top-tier data.