Carrie Lam economy hong kong politics

As Hong Kong Chaos Escalates To Molotov Cocktails, One Bank Says Recession ‘Unavoidable’

Chaos beckons.

Chaos beckons.
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16 comments on “As Hong Kong Chaos Escalates To Molotov Cocktails, One Bank Says Recession ‘Unavoidable’

  1. Authoritarians being authoritarians = bad for global economy. Next up: Brexit and (eventually) breakup of the UK, additional defections from EU. Global GDP headed lower, political conflict (China/Hong Kong, India/Pakistan, Iran/Saudi, Venezuela, Columbia) on the rise, incidence of climate disasters and climate-related migration also rising. Don’t mean to harsh your mellow at the start of the long weekend, but w’e’re all going to be poorer in five years. 10yr treasury at 1.5% looks pretty darn good. #MAGA

    • Anonymous

      And all this chaos in the world diminishing America’s influence, without Putin firing a shot. Hmm…

  2. Is this what happens when the US is unable to show international economic leadership and our plan seems to be economic isolation from a world that has been taking advantage of us?

  3. I’d like Trump to liberate us, too.

  4. Off-The-Run

    Think the PRC could greatly defuse the situation if they got more serious about providing affordable housing. Obviously, this doesn’t solve everything, but it would certainly help.

    • The most under-reported aspect of this entire saga. HK’ers with some decent jobs are living in literal tin boxes. Carrie Lam and the extradition bill became a catalyst for a lot of other economic issues that have building for some time in HK.

  5. Harvey Cotton

    China is showing a damn sight more restraint than the United States would in that situation. If there was 13 weeks of protest on Wall Street and Time Square, a national emergency would have been called and the National Guard would have been deployed.

    • Right?! I mean, everybody keeps warning “Beijing better not crack down violently” and it’s like “well, they’re literally burning the city down now!” at what point is Xi justified in saying enough is enough? and I mean, I could see if this was some kind of uprising on the Mainland where we were seeing an actual revolt aimed at usurping the Party on the way to making China a democracy. if that was the case, I could definitely see the international community telling Beijing that maybe the time has come, and the world is watching. but let’s face it: These are some kids in Hong Kong who have gotten in their head that they stand for something. and that’s fine, but it just has a contrived feel to it to me.

      • Anonymous

        How much of it is a local manifestation of the “concentration of wealth” theme?

  6. Dana Newman

    Ev’rywhere I hear the sound of marching charging feet, boy
    ‘Cause summer’s here and the time is right for fighting in the street, boy
    Well now, what can a poor boy do, except to sing for a rock n’ roll band?
    ‘Cause in sleepy Hong Kong town there’s just no place for a street fighting man
    Hey think the time is right for a palace revolution
    But where I live the game to play is compromise solution

    Same as it ever was.

  7. historian

    Wiki example: he February 28 incident or the February 28 massacre, also known as the 228 (or 2/28) incident (from Chinese: 二二八事件; pinyin: Èr’èrbā shìjiàn), was an anti-government uprising in Taiwan that was violently suppressed by the Kuomintang-led Republic of China government, which killed thousands of civilians beginning on February 28, 1947. The number of Taiwanese deaths from the incident and massacre was estimated to be between 5,000 and 28,000.[1

  8. H, I agree that it does seem a bit contrived. If this continues to escalate China will have no choice but to re-establish order. Even if they are the perpetrators themselves. I suspect a lot of demonstrators will be rounded up and disappear into China not be heard from again.

  9. Ok, assume there is an Tien An Men in Hong Kong sometime in September. Implications on economy, markets, trade negos?

    • Implications on global economy and markets will be negative, as most will see it as continued shrinking of the global trade pie. No impact on trade negotiations: Trump doesn’t give a fig about democracy — in Hong Kong, here, anywhere. He’ll make some farting noises and then will strike a deal that he can tout as victory in advance of the election. The base will swallow hook, line, and sinker.

  10. Anonymous

    Trump has interjected himself into the HK issue (presumably thinking that somehow increases his leverage, since his actual concern for human rights may be assumed to be nil) , China has pulled the US (and UK) into the public story through stories about CIA involvement, and the protesters are trying to pull the US into the story even more.

    So I think a violent end to the HK protests will impact the trade dispute in some way. China will be on the defensive as far as public relations go, and it will be even more important to avoid losing face to the US in the trade context. Trump could make this worse with some more tweet-blather.

  11. Of course this is contrived ….This is also a textbook example of how some of our Agencies work and are trained to work…We have seen this for at least the last 50 years in many places….same game different day and place…!!

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