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Tail Risks, FX Vol. And Tangled Christmas Lights
Traders are no strangers to navigating geopolitical minefields.
And, really, the fact that the geop
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Powell needs to have a PR Event, where he basically tells the world that The Fed is independent and doesn’t pay attention to tweets from any president or member of congress, reenforcing the notion that the Fed makes use of sequential data, hence suggesting that all the data is gathered by agencies that have been gathering economic data long before trump was a toddler. The Fed must gain-back its ability to have respect and place itself into a war against the disruptions and tantrums tweets of the maniac in office. The Fed has to establish a new way to telegraph a message and short circuit trumps ambush tweeting. The Fed will be stupid to allow themselves to be picked off like fish i a barrel and play the central bank game, like its been played for 50 years. This type of strategy would be entertaining for the markets and Fx.
Maybe they can have a joint press conference with leaders of the Senate, Supreme Court, Department of Justice, the two major Parties, and other Constitutional and independent agencies and civic organizations that have become politicized and made vassals of the Executive Branch. They can all say that they have important statutory functions beyond the re-election chances of any President, and that the government and the public need to be guided and constrained by things such as law, science, and facts even if those things can be embarrassing and inconveniences; that there is an objective reality that cannot be turned into opinions, that the Twitter feed of whoever has power that day has to be balanced within the horizontal and vertical structures of power to prevent tyranny and idiocy in a huge, complex, heterogeneous society.