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4,000 Conference Call Transcripts Reveal The 2 Main Factors Behind Sour Sentiment
Everybody knows business sentiment has deteriorated over the past year in the US.
There's no real mystery behind that deterioration. The cycle is aging (indeed, it's elderly), the trade war got progressively worse, global growth decelerated and stocks sold off sharply while credit spreads widened in Q4. At the same time, the effects of fiscal stimulus in the US are waning, corporate profit growth has stalled, margins have likely peaked and uncertainty is rampant - just ask the June Fed minutes,
Being an old fart and increasingly suspicious of Trump Administration pronouncements, I am now invested in 75% CASH
best to keep politics out of your investment decisions. SP500 CEOs need to make stock prices go up no matter what.. no excuses accepted for very long (like maybe one quarter). These companies have access to the best minds and best tools, mainly supercomputers and AI. they are able to adjust quickly to changing conditions even if the leadership teams don’t like the changes that are happening.
Did either the Fed or the SP500 CEO’s prevent the Great FInancial Crisis from happening?
(to answer that for the thousands of new Millennial money managers: no, they did not.)
Imbalances in finance, trade, or economies can and will occur, and stock prices can and will fluctuate, wildly.