As ‘VaR Shock’ Talk Gets Louder, Let’s Keep The ‘Tantrum’ Tabloid Calls In Perspective

As ‘VaR Shock’ Talk Gets Louder, Let’s Keep The ‘Tantrum’ Tabloid Calls In Perspective

On Thursday afternoon, following an ugly 30-year auction that sent yields surging just hours after the hottest MoM core CPI reading since January 2018 seemingly undercut Jerome Powell's contention that inflation pressures weren't likely to materialize anytime soon (despite piling rate cuts atop near-record-low unemployment and tariffs), we wrote the following: It doesn’t do anybody any good to wax hyperbolic/hysteric about this, but it is worth noting that a violent selloff in bond land or so
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3 thoughts on “As ‘VaR Shock’ Talk Gets Louder, Let’s Keep The ‘Tantrum’ Tabloid Calls In Perspective

  1. With bonds (of all credit categories) and equities priced to perfection, there appear to be only 2 paths forward: Either a continued slow grind higher, or a sharp plunge downward.

  2. H-Man, good perspective on the macro as to how the big players are playing the game. The little guys drive GDP and they seem to thrive on a low rate world as they pile on more debt. So what happens when the little guys don’t play ball because there is too much on the plate. They simply can’t afford any more debt, so what happens?

  3. Christ. For nine months or so I hang on by my fingertips trying to get a handle on this, and I get thrown an article like this and I realize I am still a rookie. I got lost after Goldman said that the likelihood of an event happening now is less than when it happened last time and it went sideways from there. I guest bond traders are smarter.

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