Everyone needs an exchange.
We’ve said that over and over in the face of the crypto crowd’s contention that governments cannot truly stamp out trading in digital currencies.
Obviously, people who really want to find a way to obtain cryptocurrencies in exchange for dollars, euros, etc. will be able to so, but the vast majority of those fueling the speculative bubble simply won’t bother with it in the event governments decide to close the exchanges or worse, make convertibility into traditional currencies outright illegal.
That latter proposition may seem far-fetched in light of the recent launch of Bitcoin futures in the U.S. and the ongoing speculation about Wall Street wading into cryptocurrency market making, but we are just one crypto-related destabilizing financial event and/or one crypto-financed major terrorist attack away from DM governments going full-Xi with something draconian on the regulatory front.
Last week, we got still more evidence that China’s ongoing effort to do away with what the Party recently called a “tricked up bubble” is far from exhausted when the Wall Street Journal confirmed reports that Beijing is cracking down on miners. The timing there left something to be desired as it came amid an increasingly aggressive posture on exchanges from authorities in South Korea.
Fortunately (for the crypto crowd), Seoul softened its stance over the weekend, as the government said it will decide whether to pursue a bill to shutter cryptocurrency exchanges only after “sufficient discussions and opinion coordination across government offices”. That’s a far cry from conducting police raids. In the meantime, the country will implement a “real-name system” on cryptocurrency accounts and regulators did reiterate that they’ll take “firm measures” on illegal trading such as tax evasion and money laundering.
Ok, well on Monday Bloomberg is out reporting that China has been seeing some signs that “sneaky, wicked, trixie Hobbitses” are circumventing the country’s ban on exchanges. Specifically, people are using “alternative venues” and as you can imagine, Beijing isn’t particularly enamored with the idea that people are effectively ignoring their decree.
So, in order to “correct” the situation, China is going to “block domestic access to homegrown and offshore platforms that enable centralized trading [and] target individuals and companies that provide market-making, settlement and clearing services for centralized trading,” Bloomberg notes.
Apparently they’re going to leave small P2P transactions alone for now, but you can bet they’ll get around to that eventually.
As long as China identifies cryptocurrency trading with capital flight and as long as it’s seen as a risk to social stability (i.e. what happens when people lose money and start demanding answers?), they will not be letting this go.
As for Bitcoin itself, it fell over the weekend but has moved sideways (or what counts as “sideways” for an asset that’s 25x as volatile as the S&P and 20x-40x as volatile as gold) since the initial knee-jerk lower on the South Korea news last week.
Well this should make up for lack of Bitcoin utility as a payment medium….. https://www.bitcoinpens.com
The cryptocurrency regulatory events trend should neither be considered news nor the unexpected – but entirely predicted by economic and monetary history. There have been 1000s of private currencies since money began about 3000 years ago. The point the most miss is not the uniqueness of crytographic digital currency technology which is neither unique or proprietary (there are over 1000 cryptocurrencies now competing not with just each other and national fiat currencies as well), is that the 3000 year history of private currency is one of continual extinctions. Of the 1000s of private currencies that came into existence over the past 3000 years – none survive. Perhaps the latest extinction of a quasi private currency was that of bearer bonds.
No informed person thinks cryptocurrency technologies are going away – and that isn’t the issue to consider in trading or investing in them. The issue is that private cryptocurrencies are going away as they are replaced by public national cryptocurrencies and other cryptographic asset devices that are more time/cost (energy) efficient, instantly accepted for commerce as an accredited currency, thus far more competitive than today’s private “Tulip, Cabbage Patch Doll, Beany Baby” crytpocurrencies and regulated much the way current/other national coin and paper fiat currencies are. Private cryptos like Bitcoin simply will not survive neither the economic/competitive or the regulatory impediments of its future – entirely predicted by the history of private currencies – digital or not.
So the future for Bitcoin an other private cryptos is entirely predictable and assured – it’s non-existent. The future of public national cryptocurrencies and other cryptographic payment devices are already well underway and will assure the devastation of current private cryptocurrencies through more cost efficiency and national treasury regulation. Cryptocurrency technology will continue to expand under the auspices of those that mediate and control (more or less sometimes) the major global economies.