Just One Question As The Bond Rout Continues: When’s The Tantrum In Stocks?

The bond selloff continued apace overnight.

“Heavy selling emerged in 10-year Treasury futures as the 200-DMA (2.3255%) was taken out and losses accelerated,” Bloomberg reported just after midnight New York time as ten-year yields were higher by 3bps at 2.34%.

This is becoming the story of the financial world, so it’s something you need to pay close attention to, especially considering there are lingering fears that if DM yields rise too far, too fast, we could get a tantrum scenario that upends equities.

Treasury yields are the highest in 11 weeks, bund yields are back at 0.50%, the highest in two months, and UK yields are the highest in eight months:

Yields

Here’s a comparison with the Sintra rates mini-tantrum:

Yields2

Even JGB yields are moving sharply higher (and indeed, this is a huge move in percentage terms), as 10Y yields move back up towards the upper end of the YCC range potentially giving the BoJ room to ramp up purchases (i.e. reverse the “stealth taper”):

JGB

Ok, so the setup is definitely in place – when’s the tantrum in equities?

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