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Spot The Problem With These Forecasts
So earlier today, following the NFP number (which was of course a beat), the Atlanta Fed lowered their GDPNow tracking forecast for Q3 growth to 3.7% from 4%.
https://twitter.com/AtlantaFed/status/893477226645270528
Here was the rationale (assuming you care, which I'm reasonably sure you do not):
The forecasts of third-quarter real consumer spending growth and real fixed investment growth declined from 3.0 percent and 5.2 percent to 2.8 percent and 4.1 percent, respectively, after this mornin
The most recent quarter will revise to sub 2% and that is with an excessively overshooting model. Speaking of models, a productive discussion might follow from complete publication of how the current 3.6% number was derived. But the FED is not required to hand in its homework, or even show its work.