It looks like the AHE miss is going to set the tone, although things have already reversed course after the initial knee-jerk reaction.
As noted earlier, the average hourly earnings number is what everyone is watching in the jobs reports as it speaks to this notion that the Fed is or isn’t hiking into a deflationary backdrop.
So although the June report was a beat, the AHE miss immediately sent yields lower:
They’ve already bounced back, but the point is that no matter how positive the report seems on the surface, that AHE print is front and center in people’s minds and that’s not going to change no matter how Treasurys trade today.
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