Right, so OPEC is out with their monthly report, which is basically just a compendium of publicly available information and anecdotes accompanied by pretty charts, but hey, at least they try.
The headline from the June edition seems to be this: OPEC crude output climbed the most since November.
This looks to be attributable to members exempt from the production cut deal restoring lost supply. From the report:
According to secondary sources, OPEC crude oil production in May increased by 336 tb/d from the previous month to average 32.14 mb/d. Crude oil output increased the most in Libya, Nigeria and Iraq.
And here’s the commentary on the global supply situation:
On the supply side, non-OPEC oil supply in the second half of the year is anticipated to increase by 0.5 mb/d compared to the first half, to average 58.4 mb/d. The US is the main driver behind this higher growth, contributing 0.76 mb/d followed by Brazil and Canada with 0.12 mb/d and 0.06 mb/d, respectively. Offsetting some of this growth will be lower production, mainly from Russia (-0.13 mb/d), China (-0.06 mb/d), Indonesia (-0.06 mb/d) and Norway (-0.05 mb/d). In terms of regional oil supply, the OECD is seen growing by 0.71 mb/d in the second half, which will broadly offset the declines of 0.18 mb/d expected in FSU and elsewhere. The decline seen in the overhang in OECD commercial oil inventories in the first four months of the year – from 339 mb to 251 mb compared to the five-year average (Graph 2) – is expected to continue in the second half, supported by production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC producers.
These trends along with the steady decline in oil in floating storage, indicate that the rebalancing of the market is underway, but at a slower pace, given the changes in fundamentals since December, especially the shift in US supply from an expected contraction to positive growth. In light of these developments, OPEC and the participating non-OPEC countries decided to extend production adjustments for a further period of nine months in recognition of the need for continuing cooperation among oil exporting countries in order to achieve a lasting stability in the oil market.
Also worth noting is OPEC lowering their forecasts for Russian production in H2 by 200,000 barrels a day and reducing the overall outlook for non-OPEC supply during the same period by the same amount.
The bottom line: just as the cartel was meeting to extend the cuts, output jumped the most in 6 months.