Jobs Report Beats

The median estimate was for +190,000k.

Thanks to last month’s miss, you can be sure the punditry (and all market participants for that matter) will pay close attention to revisions.

Here are the highlights.

  • U.S. April Nonfarm Payrolls Rose 211k; Unemp. Rate at 4.4%
  • Nonfarm payrolls forecast est. 190k, range 145k-281k from 90 economists surveyed
  • Nonfarm payrolls, net revisions, subtracted 6k from prior two months
  • Participation rate 62.9% vs prior 63%
  • Avg. hourly earnings 0.3% m/m, est. 0.3%, prior 0.1% Y/y 2.5%, prior 2.6% est. 2.7%
  • Nonfarm private payrolls rose 194k vs prior 77k; est. 190k, range 155k-270k from 39 economists surveyed
  • Manufacturing payrolls rose 6k after rising 13k in the prior month; economists estimated 10k, range 0k to 15k from 23 economists surveyed
  • Unemployment rate 4.4% vs prior 4.5%; est. 4.6%, range 4.4%-4.7% from 85 economists surveyed
  • Underemployment rate 8.6% vs prior 8.9%
  • Change in household employment 156k vs prior 472k

Estimates:

  • Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, est. 190,000, prior 98,000
  • Change in Private Payrolls, est. 190,000, prior 89,000
  • Change in Manufact. Payrolls, est. 10,000, prior 11,000
  • Unemployment Rate, est. 4.6%, prior 4.5%
  • Average Hourly Earnings MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.2%
  • Average Hourly Earnings YoY, est. 2.7%, prior 2.7%
  • Average Weekly Hours All Employees, est. 34.4, prior 34.3
  • Labor Force Participation Rate, prior 63.0%
  • Underemployment Rate, prior 8.9%

And if you were wondering what to watch for in today’s “all-important” (just forget collapsing commodities) NFP report, the answer is simple if you put any stock in recent history: the AHE print.

“Of last six employment reports, four spurred moves that were driven primarily by the average hourly earnings component rather than nonfarm payrolls,” Bloomberg writes, adding that “the reaction to most recent report was driven by unemployment rate.”

  • March data released April 7: NFP rose 98k vs 180k est.
    • UST yields fell to session lows, then immediately rebounded as focus shifted to the unexpected drop in the U.S. unemployment rate unexpectedly to the lowest level since 2007
    • 10Y yield’s 11bp daily range was the biggest since Dec. 14
    • S&P 500 fell less than 0.1%
  • February data released March 10: NFP rose 225k vs 200k est.
    • USTs gained as data was viewed as affirming expectations Fed would raise rates on March 15 without leading the market to price in more than two additional hikes in 2017
    • S&P 500 rose 0.3%
  • January data released Feb. 3: NFP rose 227k vs 180k est.
    • Report spurred gains based on 0.1% increase in average hourly earnings vs 0.3% forecast, which were erased after San Francisco Fed President Williams said there was an argument for raising rates in March
    • S&P 500 rose 0.7%
  • December data released Jan. 6: NFP rose 156k vs 175k est.
    • USTs fell as report included bigger-than-forecast 0.4% increase in avg hourly earnings that pushed y/y rate to 2.9%, highest since 2009, and upward revision to November NFP change to 204k; 10Y yield closed higher by 7.5bp
    • S&P 500 rose 0.4%
  • November data released Dec. 2: NFP rose 178k vs 180k est.
    • Report spurred temporary gains based on unexpected 0.1% drop in avg hourly earnings that pulled y/y rate down from highest since 2009; USTs resumed rising later in the session led by EGBs as focus turned to Dec. 4 Italian referendum
    • S&P 500 rose 0.04%
  • October data released Nov. 4: NFP rose 161k vs 173k est.
    • Yields rose to session highs after jobs report, which also showed avg hourly earnings rose 2.8% y/y, highest since 2009; yields retreated and closed lower by 2bp-5bp amid steeper declines for gilt yields and drop in oil to 1-month low
    • S&P 500 fell 0.2%
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