Oil Gets (More) Bad News – Meanwhile, Fitch Says Saudis Will Be Bankrupt Any Day Now

Aaaaand the deflationary impulse “builds” – literally.

EIA data out this morning confirms what Tuesday’s API numbers tipped: a larger than expected build in US stockpiles.

API

• Crude inventories rose 4.53m bbl last week
• Cushing +1.97m
• Gasoline -4.93m
• Distillates -883k
• May WTI at $48.36/bbl at 4:33pm ET vs $48.27 before API release to subscribers at 4:30pm, $48.24 at settlement
• April WTI expired at $47.34/bbl

EIA

• EIA: Crude +4,954k Bbl, Median Est. +3,000k Bbl
• Cushing crude +1,419k
• PADD 3 crude +10k
• Gasoline -2,811k vs est. -2,400k
• PADD 1B gasoline -2,275k
• Distillates -1,910k vs est. -1,500k
• PADD 1 Distillates -1,354k
• Refinery utilization +2.3 ppt vs est. +0.2 ppt
• Refinery crude inputs +329k b/d
• Crude imports +902k b/d
• Crude production +20k b/d

Of course the reaction in crude and RBOB will be predictably absurd (panic sell, maybe panic buy, maybe panic buy/sell some more later today depending on how sh*t goes and actually it’s already started so the following chart is now antiquated, but f*ck it)…

…but generally speaking, this is just plain old bearish. Sorry. Bigger than expected build versus consensus, larger than the reported API build, and then, to add insult to injury, the gasoline draw barely beat estimates and came in shallower than the API number.

• BRENT CRUDE SLIPS BELOW $50 FOR FIRST TIME SINCE NOVEMBER

******

And now back to your regularly scheduled programming which includes the likes of Fitch patiently explaining that all we have to do is wait for Saudi Arabia to go bankrupt and prices will stabilize…

• Saudi Arabia Cut to A+ From AA- by Fitch
• Downgrade reflects the continued deterioration of public and external balance sheets, the significantly wider than expected fiscal deficit in 2016 and continued doubts about the extent to which the government’s ambitious reform programme can be implemented, Fitch says.
• Fitch sees Saudi Arabia central govt deficit 9.2% of GDP in ’17, 7.1% of GDP in ’18
• Current account deficit seen at 6.1% for all of ’16 by Fitch
• Outlook stable

Meanwhile….

like a boss… pic.twitter.com/WzIIDMNA5l

— Heisenberg Report (@heisenbergrpt) March 19, 2017