Who’s fired up about this morning’s blowout ADP report?
I know I am. And I’m sure Donald Trump is too. Just more evidence that America is indeed becoming “great again” one econ print and one Constitutional crisis at a time.
And do you know who else is excited? Goldman. Whose economists figure that in light of incoming information, the NFP report could be better than they initially expected and on top of that, they figure maybe a “certain” March rate hike might just get “certain-er-er” on Friday morning.
Private employment rose by 298k in February according to the ADP employment report, well above consensus expectations for an increase of 187k and its fastest pace since April 2014. By sector, service-providing employment rose 193k, led by healthy increases in professional & business services (+66k), education and health services (+40k), and leisure and hospitality (+40k) payrolls. Employment in goods-providing sectors also increased (+106k), led by growth in the construction (+66k) and manufacturing (+32k) sectors.
In past research, we’ve found that large surprises in the ADP report tend to be predictive of the subsequent nonfarm payroll surprise, and we believe the sharp acceleration in today’s report provides additional evidence for a strong employment report this Friday. As a result, we revised up our forecast for nonfarm payrolls by 25k to +215k.
But even an in line payrolls report could drive volatility in stocks as it would make a rate hike at the upcoming meeting even more likely, and a surprise might change expectations for a March hike