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Look How Stupid People Are: Recapping A Spectacular January For High Yield
God knows I've been a persistent critic of HY credit for the better part of ... well... for the better part of "a long ass time."
And I've been wrong. Really wrong. So wrong in fact, that if you'd bought junk bond ETFs at last year's deflationary nadir, you'd be up something like 16% at this point.
The premise behind the rally is pretty much just: "oil." Which is ironic, because when everything was in shambles late last January, the premise behind the slump was also just: "oil."
Well I don't
Let’s take the devil’s advocate position on oil prices. Now there is nothing like standing up to the west that makes the ayatollah’s happy, in order to galvanize a people that would be otherwise wondering why there life is so crappy when it does not have to be that way. So the ayatollah’s poke Trump in the eye again. We already know that Mattis wanted to attack Iran for the crap the Shiite militias where doing in Iraq under Iran’s orders, so it is game on. Trump then orders some kind of military action against Iran in a super tough guy fashion and says, “I have a deal, if you lay off the ICBM’s no more trouble from us”. Iran says “That sounds like a really good deal…but I have a better one” see this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XierBpLGgwQ So they threaten the Straits of Hormuz until Trump backs down. Meanwhile we have Trump who has made it clear that there is no reason to have nuclear weapons if we won’t threaten to use them. Not great. The sad thing is the sycophants that would be cheering it on because they don’t know the difference between reality TV and actual reality.