Dec. Jobs Data Misses, Unemployment Rate Ticks Higher, Wages Rise

Normally, you’d probably want to focus first and foremost on how markets respond. Especially rates and FX.

But we live in strange times. The most important thing to watch in the wake of today’s payrolls data is probably Donald Trump’s Twitter feed. Let’s see who gets “credit” for the Dec. miss.

  • U.S. Dec. Nonfarm Payrolls Rose 156k; Unemp. Rate at 4.7%
  • Nonfarm payrolls, net revisions, added 19k from prior two months
  • Participation rate 62.7% vs prior 62.6%
  • Avg. hourly earnings m/m 0.4%, est. 0.3%, prior -0.1%
    • Y/y 2.9%, prior 2.5% est. 2.8%
  • Nonfarm private payrolls rose 144k vs prior 198k; est. 170k, range 136k-241k from 37 economists surveyed
  • Manufacturing payrolls rose 17k after falling 7k in the prior month; economists estimated 0k, range -8k to 8k from 22 economists surveyed
  • Unemployment rate 4.7% vs prior 4.6%; est. 4.7%, range 4.5%-4.8% from 80 economists surveyed
  • Change in household employment 63k vs prior 146k

TREASURIES RESUME DECLINE AFTER MIXED DEC. JOBS REPORT

USD RISES AFTER NFP, REVISION AND AHE SUPPORT

More from Bloomberg:

The U.S. labor market turned in a solid performance at the end of 2016, sending job gains above 2 million for a sixth year as paychecks rose by the most during the current expansion.

The 156,000 increase in December payrolls followed a 204,000 rise in November that was bigger than previously estimated, a Labor Department report showed Friday in Washington. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a 175,000 advance. The jobless rate ticked up to 4.7 percent as the labor force grew, and wages rose 2.9 percent from December 2015.

Worker shortages may become more frequent in the coming year, which means employers could have to give out bigger wage hikes even as hiring cools. The data underscore a job market that will continue to buoy consumer spending in 2017, with Federal Reserve officials deeming the situation at or close to full employment.

“It puts 2016 as a pretty solid year for employment,” Tom Simons, an economist at Jefferies LLC in New York, said before the report. “The overall dynamics in the labor market are still improving. We’re going to continue to see upward momentum in wages this year.”

 

Estimates:

  • 8:30am: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, Dec., est. 175k (prior 178k)
    • Two-Month Payroll Net Revision, Dec.
    • Change in Private Payrolls, Dec., est. 170k (prior 156k)
    • Change in Manufact. Payrolls, Dec., est. 0k (prior -4k)
  • 8:30am: Unemployment Rate, Dec., est. 4.7% (prior 4.6%)
    • Average Hourly Earnings MoM, Dec., est. 0.3% (prior -0.1%)
    • Average Hourly Earnings YoY, Dec., est. 2.8% (prior 2.5%)
    • Average Weekly Hours All Employees, Dec., est. 34.4 (prior 34.4)
    • Labor Force Participation Rate, Dec., (prior 62.7%)
    • Underemployment Rate, Dec., (prior 9.3%)
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2 thoughts on “Dec. Jobs Data Misses, Unemployment Rate Ticks Higher, Wages Rise

  1. I would be very interested to know just what the percentage is of part-time jobs are included that give us the 4.7% unemployed.
    Mike: Charleston SC

    • I think you are looking for part time for economic reasons, it is back down a normal percentage these days.

      https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t08.htm

      “The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (also referred to as involuntary part-time workers), at 5.6 million, was essentially unchanged in December but was down by 459,000 over the year. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job. (See table A-8.)”

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