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Weekly: Melodrama

November 7, 2026November 7, 2026
  • ‘Dem Fatale’ Crashes The AI Party

    November 6, 2026November 6, 2026
  • Inflation Fatalism Has Set In

    November 6, 2026
  • Drunken Monkey Darts

    November 6, 2026November 6, 2026

Markets

On Wall Street: Crash And F’in’ Burn

November 5, 2026November 7, 2026
  • Did Democrats Just Kill ‘New 60/40’?

    November 5, 2026November 6, 2026
  • Um, Excuse Me, But Your Chips Are Bleeding

    November 5, 2026November 6, 2026
  • Deus Ex Machina?

    November 4, 2026November 5, 2026
  • The Capex Catch-22

    November 3, 2026November 4, 2026

economy

US Jobless Claims Chase History

November 5, 2026November 5, 2026
  • ‘Tis The Season! For Temporary Fulfillment Jobs

    November 5, 2026November 6, 2026
  • Senseless Iran War Triggers BoE Hike, 5% Inflation Warning

    November 5, 2026November 5, 2026
  • Irrepressible

    November 4, 2026November 5, 2026
  • In Other News: Scorching ‘Job Changer’ Pay Gains, AI Disruption

    November 4, 2026November 5, 2026

Geopolitics

Tsunami

November 4, 2026November 5, 2026

Let’s Talk Blue Waves

November 1, 2026November 2, 2026

Lagarde Versus Le Pen?

October 29, 2026October 30, 2026

Duly Noted

An ARM And A Leg

October 28, 2026October 30, 2026

Not Since 1969…

October 22, 2026October 24, 2026

The Best-Laid Plans: Wall Street Weighs What Could Go Wrong With Trump’s China Gamble

May 6, 2019May 6, 2019

“While that may well be the plan”…

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1 Comment on The Best-Laid Plans: Wall Street Weighs What Could Go Wrong With Trump’s China Gamble

Goldman Doubles Odds Of Auto Tariffs, Calls Trump’s Trade Tantrum ‘Significant Shift’

May 6, 2019May 6, 2019

“This development has incrementally negative implications for the outlook.”

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2 Comments on Goldman Doubles Odds Of Auto Tariffs, Calls Trump’s Trade Tantrum ‘Significant Shift’

As VIX Spikes, Trump Says ‘Sorry’, Not Sorry

May 6, 2019November 6, 2021

“…we’re not going to be doing that anymore!”

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2 Comments on As VIX Spikes, Trump Says ‘Sorry’, Not Sorry

China’s Monday Meltdown In Pictures

May 6, 2019May 6, 2019

“Rough day” doesn’t quite capture it.

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4 Comments on China’s Monday Meltdown In Pictures

China Considers Canceling Trade Talks, Yuan Dives, PBoC Announces Targeted RRR Cut

May 5, 2019May 5, 2019

On the “bright” side…

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Leave a Comment on China Considers Canceling Trade Talks, Yuan Dives, PBoC Announces Targeted RRR Cut

Nomura’s McElligott On Trump’s Trade Tweet: This Is Either ‘Epic Poker-Playing Or A Raging Miscalculation’

May 5, 2019May 5, 2019

Beware “vigilante markets”.

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7 Comments on Nomura’s McElligott On Trump’s Trade Tweet: This Is Either ‘Epic Poker-Playing Or A Raging Miscalculation’

Trading ‘Transitory’, Doves Down Under & Fightin’ Words: Full Week Ahead Preview

May 5, 2019November 6, 2021

Steel yourself.

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‘No!’ Trump Ruins Your Weekend, Says He’ll Restart Trade War With China On Friday

May 5, 2019May 5, 2019

“The 10% will go up to 25% on Friday.”

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10 Comments on ‘No!’ Trump Ruins Your Weekend, Says He’ll Restart Trade War With China On Friday

Behold: The Most Hypocritical, Ridiculous MMT Broadside Yet

May 5, 2019November 6, 2021

Brought to you by four people who voted for Trump’s deficit-ballooning tax cut package.

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6 Comments on Behold: The Most Hypocritical, Ridiculous MMT Broadside Yet

‘Robert Cialdini Move’ Or Full-AOC? An ‘Apoplectic’ World Confronts MMT Juggernaut

May 4, 2019May 4, 2019

“The government debt and deficits scolds are just plain wrong, in our view.”

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5 Comments on ‘Robert Cialdini Move’ Or Full-AOC? An ‘Apoplectic’ World Confronts MMT Juggernaut

One Pro Thinks Other Pros Are Leaning Too Hard Into Rate Cut Bets

May 4, 2019May 4, 2019

“I can tell you one thing for sure – when all the pros are leaning one way, I wouldn’t want to be in their camp.”

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Leave a Comment on One Pro Thinks Other Pros Are Leaning Too Hard Into Rate Cut Bets

‘Disharmony’ And What’s ‘Frustrating’ Goldman’s Clients

May 4, 2019May 4, 2019

“This week the Reiwa era of ‘beautiful harmony’ began in Japan but”…

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1 Comment on ‘Disharmony’ And What’s ‘Frustrating’ Goldman’s Clients

After Wild Week, Trump Takes Refuge In Hour-Long Call With Putin

May 3, 2019May 4, 2019

Things were a mess inside the Beltway this week.

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4 Comments on After Wild Week, Trump Takes Refuge In Hour-Long Call With Putin

SocGen: ‘We Cringe’ Whenever We See That Chart Of The VIX And The Yield Curve

May 3, 2019

It’s spurious.

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2 Comments on SocGen: ‘We Cringe’ Whenever We See That Chart Of The VIX And The Yield Curve

Larry Kudlow Cranks Propaganda Knob To Spinal Tap-ish ’11’ In Absurd Friday Press Junket

May 3, 2019May 3, 2019

Unadulterated, state propaganda. Period. 

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5 Comments on Larry Kudlow Cranks Propaganda Knob To Spinal Tap-ish ’11’ In Absurd Friday Press Junket

Macro Rumor Mill: ‘High-Profile Former Central Bank Head’ Says Odds Of Q1 2020 Fed Hike Higher Than Odds Of Cut

May 3, 2019

“Word around the macro universe”…

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2 Comments on Macro Rumor Mill: ‘High-Profile Former Central Bank Head’ Says Odds Of Q1 2020 Fed Hike Higher Than Odds Of Cut

Jobs Report Blows Away Estimates, Unemployment Rate Falls, Wage Growth Again Cooler-Than-Expected

May 3, 2019May 3, 2019

Who wants to re-trade the Fed?

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3 Comments on Jobs Report Blows Away Estimates, Unemployment Rate Falls, Wage Growth Again Cooler-Than-Expected

Latest European ‘Green Shoot’ Gets The ‘Meh’ Treatment

May 3, 2019

Still, Europe will take anything it can get.

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Don’t Blame CTAs Or Risk Parity For The Simultaneous Selloff In Stocks And Bonds

May 2, 2019May 2, 2019

“Stability breeds instability, however.”

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2 Comments on Don’t Blame CTAs Or Risk Parity For The Simultaneous Selloff In Stocks And Bonds

Stephen Moore Pulls Out Of Fed ‘Process’, Sparing America Any Further Screwing

May 2, 2019May 3, 2019

“My biggest ally is the president [and] he’s full speed ahead”.

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10 Comments on Stephen Moore Pulls Out Of Fed ‘Process’, Sparing America Any Further Screwing

One Bank Marvels At ‘Eye-Watering’ Grab For Yield As New Issue Demand Hits Record

May 2, 2019

“Whatever it takes”, I suppose.

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1 Comment on One Bank Marvels At ‘Eye-Watering’ Grab For Yield As New Issue Demand Hits Record

Nomura’s McElligott Rolls Eyes At Powell’s ‘Transitory’ Inflation Message, Says Bar For Cut ‘Infinitely’ Lower Than Bar For Hike

May 2, 2019

“I remain completely convinced that the bar to CUT is infinitely lower than the bar to HIKE.

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1 Comment on Nomura’s McElligott Rolls Eyes At Powell’s ‘Transitory’ Inflation Message, Says Bar For Cut ‘Infinitely’ Lower Than Bar For Hike

Goldman: The Odds Of A Rate Cut Were Already Low, Now They’re Lower

May 2, 2019May 2, 2019

Powell quickly reversed [the] initial impression.

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Leave a Comment on Goldman: The Odds Of A Rate Cut Were Already Low, Now They’re Lower

Crisis Looms As Barr Refuses To Appear Before House, Nadler Threatens Contempt Citation

May 1, 2019May 2, 2019

“The attorney general is trying to blackmail the committee”.

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2 Comments on Crisis Looms As Barr Refuses To Appear Before House, Nadler Threatens Contempt Citation

‘Plain English’ Goes Awry – Again

May 1, 2019May 1, 2019

However, things took an abrupt turn during the press conference…

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6 Comments on ‘Plain English’ Goes Awry – Again

Fed Attempts ‘Dovish Hold’, Emphasizes Muted Inflation, Lowers IOER

May 1, 2019May 1, 2019

Now, let’s go to Twitter to see what the president thinks.

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William Barr Wishes We Could All Just Agree To Disagree About This Whole ‘Did The President Obstruct Justice?’ Thing

May 1, 2019May 1, 2019

Obfuscation at its best – or worst, depending on how you want to look at things.

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Leave a Comment on William Barr Wishes We Could All Just Agree To Disagree About This Whole ‘Did The President Obstruct Justice?’ Thing

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Monthly Letter

  • The Arbitrageur

Recent Comments

  • WMD on Weekly: Melodrama
  • Engineer on ‘Dem Fatale’ Crashes The AI Party
  • Engineer on ‘Dem Fatale’ Crashes The AI Party
  • Engineer on ‘Dem Fatale’ Crashes The AI Party

Monthly Letters

The Arbitrageur

October 29, 2026October 29, 2026

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

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