Rethinking The Repricing
Market pricing for the Fed trajectory tends to overshoot. It was clear in January that
Market pricing for the Fed trajectory tends to overshoot. It was clear in January that
The Treasury refunding announcement came and went without apparent incident on Wednesday, when coupons were
Blink and you missed it. For about a week, market participants showed some interest in
Earlier this week, I took a few minutes to put readers to sleep by revisiting
Part of me hesitates to say anything that might be construed as “directional” ahead of
When you think about the likely evolution of Fed policy for the remainder of 2024,
It’s clear enough that previously “oblivious” equities reached the limit this month in terms of
“The USD ‘wrecking ball’ is again the world’s problem,” Nomura’s Charlie McElligott said Thursday. A
Markets were jittery on the heels of a weekend defined by terrifying headlines out of
Late last week, I noted that war risk became real for markets. Briefly. It became
We “should” be looking at the smoldering wreckage of a meaningful equity drawdown right about
The suspicion among some observers that the current macro-policy conjuncture across the world’s largest economy
Equity bears are caught in a kind of insanity loop. Generally speaking, bear cases fall
“I’m just waiting for an update on skew.” So said one reader last week. That
Gold’s big move is big news. It’s also a big mystery. As discussed at some
They’re hedging downside again. A little bit anyway. For months, the options space was defined
Is the obsession over the Fed’s dot plot refresh this week overdone? Yes. Surely. Because
Of all the purportedly puzzling dynamics bedeviling market participants in their belabored efforts to makes
For what it’s worth — which could be a lot if the last several months
The short vol trade’s back. Did you hear? You did?! That must mean you’re a
Here’s a notable statistic: If US equities post gains during the final two months of
The rally on Wall Street, which looked poised for a breather on Tuesday, may or
Stocks are reluctant to hold a selloff. In fact, we’re back in a regime where
“Stay bullish.” That’s the message from a lot of people. From anyone you care to
Last month, I spent some time editorializing around a 2024 outlook piece which echoed many
Are we witnessing a “blow-off top” in equities? To answer that, we have to define
“A never-ending melt-up in index.” That’s what befuddled bears were pondering by the end of
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