Jerome Powell isn’t likely to do the “one thing” that could durably tighten financial conditions.
Category: Markets
‘So, We Raised Interest Rates’
“If you get to the mid-3s or maybe even a little bit higher, and then
Why One Popular Quant Is ‘Terrified’ Of Jackson Hole
Following an impressively durable summer rally aided and abetted by systematic flows and squeeze dynamics,
In Europe: Recession, 500-Year Drought
The European economy is in trouble. I doubt that’s news to anyone. But it was
EU Energy Panic Goes Full GameStop As Russia Tensions Rise
At a certain point, you run out of creative hyperbole. Such is the case with
‘You Are Now Free To Move About The Cabin’
The volatility expansion window is now open. The question is whether discretionary investors look to
Cash Is King
Cash is king. And not just because these are uncertain times. For most of the
Jay Powell’s Pain Trade
Pain. The path to lower inflation in the US goes through economic pain. And Larry
When You’re In A Hole…
It’s all about Jackson Hole in the new week, which, as usual, will feel a
‘Leap Of Faith’: Summer Rally Has S&P At Goldman’s Year-End Target
US equities reached Goldman’s year-end target four months early. As you can imagine, the bank’s
Goldilocks And Other Summer Stories
There’s talk of an autumn “reaping” following a summer stock rally which, depending on who
Ok, What Now? Wall Street Looks Around And Ahead
It’s “Ok, what now?” time. Both for equities and the economy. The summer stock rally
The Bull-Bear
Not all bears are alike. Take the American black bear, for example. They’re typically shy,
Hot Summers, Cold Winters
“Apocalyptic.” That’s how one popular strategist described the latest PPI print out of Germany, the
Patient Bears
“Everyone is bearish but no one has sold stocks,” BofA’s Michael Hartnett said, in the
Marko Kolanovic ‘Sets The Record Straight’
JPMorgan’s Marko Kolanovic wants to “set the record straight.” Over the course of 2022, the
Erdogan Rolls Dice. Cuts Rates With Turkish Inflation At 80%
Like most countries in 2022, Turkey has an inflation problem. I should note, for those
Albert Edwards: The Ice Age Is Finally Over
The US is likely headed into a proper recession, but according to one erstwhile deflationist,
One Does Not Simply Become Walmart
The US consumer is “very healthy.” That’s according to Target CEO Brian Cornell, who spent
The ‘Now’ Zeitgeist
A pair of macro notables served as a reminder that however close we may be
Mechanical Bull: What’s Really Behind The Summer Stock Rally
It’s certainly tempting to cite the “peak inflation” narrative and attendant expectations for an incrementally
Everyday Low Bar: Walmart Steps Over Twice-Cut Forecast
Walmart is “seeing more middle- and high-income shoppers,” CEO Doug McMillon said Tuesday. It was
‘Tail Risks Are Diminishing,’ Kolanovic, JPMorgan Say
There are three possible scenarios for US growth, according to JPMorgan. One involves the risk
The Elephant In The Room
What about QT? Has everyone forgotten about QT? That’s one (among several) questions BofA’s Savita
This Bear Isn’t Buying It
Mike Wilson was “surprised” by the “magnitude” of a bear market rally that propelled US
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