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Category: Markets

Apple Delivers Best Quarter In Years

January 29, 2026January 30, 2026

“Way” back in October, Tim Cook said iPhone sales and also total revenue at Apple

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4 Comments on Apple Delivers Best Quarter In Years

Riding The Bubbles

January 29, 2026January 31, 2026

There’s some nascent unwind risk emanating from the CTA universe. I realize that’s a little

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2 Comments on Riding The Bubbles

Meta, Microsoft Beat As AI Costs Scrutinized

January 28, 2026January 29, 2026

Meta and Microsoft both beat estimates in results released after the bell on Wall Street

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4 Comments on Meta, Microsoft Beat As AI Costs Scrutinized

Jerome Powell’s Got Nothing For You

January 28, 2026January 29, 2026

Jerome Powell has nothing for you. On anything. Or at least not on anything you

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7 Comments on Jerome Powell’s Got Nothing For You

Waller Joins Miran In Dovish Dissent As Fed Holds Rates

January 28, 2026January 29, 2026

The Fed kept rates on hold Wednesday, as widely expected. Stephen Miran naturally dissented, but

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The Poli-Sci Catalyst Behind Gold’s Epic Rally, Dollar’s Deepening Disaster

January 28, 2026January 28, 2026

The paradox of power for America vis-à-vis the dollar-based financial architecture which grew out of,

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8 Comments on The Poli-Sci Catalyst Behind Gold’s Epic Rally, Dollar’s Deepening Disaster

Dollar Bears Everywhere!

January 27, 2026January 28, 2026

I spent a lot of time early this week lamenting the rampant uncertainty engendered by

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1 Comment on Dollar Bears Everywhere!

What Immigration Crackdowns And De-Dollarization Have In Common

January 26, 2026January 27, 2026

Rule of law. It matters. In fact, it’s the only thing that matters in the

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6 Comments on What Immigration Crackdowns And De-Dollarization Have In Common

Gold Soars Above $5,000 As Chaos Rally Goes Parabolic

January 26, 2026January 27, 2026

I love the smell of flaming fiat in the morning. On Monday, gold added to

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4 Comments on Gold Soars Above $5,000 As Chaos Rally Goes Parabolic

What To Expect From 2026’s First FOMC Meeting

January 25, 2026January 26, 2026

Jerome Powell, spendthrift renovator, will defy Donald Trump’s calls for more rate cuts at this

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1 Comment on What To Expect From 2026’s First FOMC Meeting

Weekly: The Existential Threat To US Treasurys

January 24, 2026January 26, 2026

I’m pretty sanguine about the outlook for risk assets but… BUT. At the end of

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11 Comments on Weekly: The Existential Threat To US Treasurys

Remember: ‘The Markets Have No Heart’

January 23, 2026January 26, 2026

I’ve said it a few dozen times before and I’m sure I’ll say it at

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4 Comments on Remember: ‘The Markets Have No Heart’

Bond Vigilantes Beat Down The Door In Japan

January 23, 2026January 25, 2026

I wouldn’t say this was an “all’s well that ends well” week for the Japanese

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3 Comments on Bond Vigilantes Beat Down The Door In Japan

The Stocks Are Fine. The ‘Fake’ Polls, Not So Much

January 23, 2026January 24, 2026

If you’re a politician and your poll numbers aren’t great, there are a couple of

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1 Comment on The Stocks Are Fine. The ‘Fake’ Polls, Not So Much

Unhedged Pros Perilously Exposed To Stock Drawdown

January 21, 2026January 22, 2026

If nothing can go wrong, I suppose you don’t need hedges. I’m reminded of an

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Uber-Bullish Fund Managers Expect A ‘Boom’

January 21, 2026January 21, 2026

Professional money managers have virtually never been more bullish. Because what on Earth could go

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Denmark De-Dollarizes

January 20, 2026January 21, 2026

“We are taking no action based on rhetoric alone.” So said Anders Schelde, CIO of

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5 Comments on Denmark De-Dollarizes

‘Take A Deep Breath,’ Bessent Says, As Dollar Dives

January 20, 2026January 21, 2026

If you’re a developed nation, you don’t want to see your currency sell off at

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3 Comments on ‘Take A Deep Breath,’ Bessent Says, As Dollar Dives

Japanese Bond Market Implodes On Takaichi Power Play

January 20, 2026January 21, 2026

There’s trouble in bond land and the epicenter’s Tokyo. Three months into her tenure, Japanese

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4 Comments on Japanese Bond Market Implodes On Takaichi Power Play

Stocks, Credit Ignore A World Ablaze

January 18, 2026January 19, 2026

It’s a holiday week in the US and there isn’t a lot on the compressed

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8 Comments on Stocks, Credit Ignore A World Ablaze

Did Trump Just Announce The Next Fed Chair?

January 16, 2026January 19, 2026

Donald Trump may spare us the humiliation of Fed Chair Kevin Hassett. As recently as

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4 Comments on Did Trump Just Announce The Next Fed Chair?

How Scary Is The Ramp-Up In Tech Sector Debt?

January 15, 2026January 17, 2026

Investors harbor a veritable obsession with hyper-scaler capex and for good reason. As discussed here

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4 Comments on How Scary Is The Ramp-Up In Tech Sector Debt?

AI Capex Spree Points To Lower Returns On Capital

January 15, 2026January 16, 2026

Get ready for lower returns on capital from the largest, most important companies on the

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4 Comments on AI Capex Spree Points To Lower Returns On Capital

Goldman’s Equities Traders, Morgan’s Debt Bankers Make It Rain

January 15, 2026January 16, 2026

Goldman’s equities traders did some trading last quarter. Notwithstanding a slight miss to consensus when

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2 Comments on Goldman’s Equities Traders, Morgan’s Debt Bankers Make It Rain

Bank Of America’s Fine, In Case You Were Wondering

January 14, 2026January 15, 2026

Brian Moynihan, like Jamie Dimon, is bullish on the US economy. He said as much

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McElligott Explains Why Stocks Don’t Care About Powell Drama

January 13, 2026January 14, 2026

If you’re old enough to remember 2018, the year Jerome Powell took the reins at

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6 Comments on McElligott Explains Why Stocks Don’t Care About Powell Drama

Dimon Upbeat On US Economy As JPMorgan Tops Estimates

January 13, 2026January 14, 2026

JPMorgan kicked off big bank earnings in the US on Tuesday with a set of

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1 Comment on Dimon Upbeat On US Economy As JPMorgan Tops Estimates

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Monthly Letters

The Arbitrageur

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To Be Happy

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Hell Or High Fashion

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