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‘Stunning’ Stock Dispersion Echoes Lehman, Dot-Com Crash
If it feels to you like a lot's happening across US equities in 2026 to not much index-level effect,
As someone who frequently has to forecast company performance, there’s no greater feeling than when you nail the forecast but leadership can’t see how badly you missed on the individual metrics that made up your forecast.
Oh that’s so true. A week or so ago, I freely admitted on a national business TV channel that GOOG was now the biggest holding in my accounts, “…by mistake…” (que Withnail & I). CAT is fast approaching that dubious status as well. I suppose it’s better than being wrong for all the right reasons, but it’s still a mug’s game.
Thank you for posting this.
Perhaps it is a decent forward-looking indicator.
“Very favorable conditions for short correlation / long dispersion. If you’re funding longs in single-name vol with shorts in index vol, you’re Sharpe’s looking pretty good right about now.”
This is a nice reminder of what the word “investment” has become. (Don’t scold me – I came from that world.) But if the stock market has become a casino with the house being buybacks, the whales being vol algo and momentum model strategies, a little minnow had best learn the new rules and navigate accordingly. Or …. follow just a Bogle approach?