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Category: Markets

Gold, Gas And Guns

March 23, 2022March 23, 2022

“It’s time for Europe to start thinking about winter gas supplies,” Russia’s Alexander Novak said,

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6 Comments on Gold, Gas And Guns

Clear And Present Danger

March 22, 2022March 23, 2022

Who’s afraid of credit spreads? The Fed, historically. Speculation is rife that overzealous policymakers, terrified

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2 Comments on Clear And Present Danger

Rate Cuts, Recession: Coming 2023 To A Theater Near You

March 22, 2022March 23, 2022

Earlier this month, frustrated with a lack of capitulation in US equities, I asked when

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10 Comments on Rate Cuts, Recession: Coming 2023 To A Theater Near You

Goldman Changes Fed Call As Two-Year Yields Surge Most Since 1984

March 22, 2022March 23, 2022

If you ask Goldman, there’s something to Jerome Powell’s newfound affinity for the word “expeditiously”

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4 Comments on Goldman Changes Fed Call As Two-Year Yields Surge Most Since 1984

Through The Flames

March 22, 2022March 23, 2022

The market narrative continued to revolve almost exclusively around the Fed on Tuesday, as traders

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2 Comments on Through The Flames

Putin Delivers Body Blow To European Investor Psychology

March 21, 2022March 22, 2022

On a day when US market participants were apparently feeling decidedly less enthusiastic about the

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3 Comments on Putin Delivers Body Blow To European Investor Psychology

Treasury Selloff Accelerates As Hawkish Powell Bets On ‘Soft-ish’ Landing

March 21, 2022March 22, 2022

“Powell’s hawkish comments ripple through markets,” one headline read, on Monday afternoon. This week was

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3 Comments on Treasury Selloff Accelerates As Hawkish Powell Bets On ‘Soft-ish’ Landing

Just Stop. De-Dollarization Is Impossible

March 21, 2022April 6, 2022

I often forget I’m getting older. I’m fortunate in many ways, not least of which

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10 Comments on Just Stop. De-Dollarization Is Impossible

Fault Lines

March 21, 2022March 22, 2022

Markets exhibited something like relative stability Monday, as investors looked ahead to a week that’ll

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8 Comments on Fault Lines

Tape Bombs And Technocrats

March 20, 2022March 24, 2022

Traders and investors will hear from a long list of Fed speakers in the new

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4 Comments on Tape Bombs And Technocrats

‘It’s Getting Late,’ One Bank Warns

March 20, 2022March 21, 2022

One bank’s “hotter but shorter” cycle thesis is beginning to look quite prescient. Around a

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4 Comments on ‘It’s Getting Late,’ One Bank Warns

The Roarin’ 2020s And The Death Of The Bond Bull

March 19, 2022March 30, 2022

In this century’s iteration of the “Roarin’ 20s,” the word “Roarin” has a decidedly negative

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4 Comments on The Roarin’ 2020s And The Death Of The Bond Bull

With Stagflation, Investors Damned If They Do, Damned If They Don’t

March 19, 2022March 20, 2022

Stagflation looms. That’s the zeitgeist across markets, and it’s visible pretty much everywhere you care

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1 Comment on With Stagflation, Investors Damned If They Do, Damned If They Don’t

The Petroyuan And ApeCoin: Fables Of The Dollar Deconstruction

March 19, 2022April 6, 2022

A few days ago, market participants were treated to a new version of an old

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23 Comments on The Petroyuan And ApeCoin: Fables Of The Dollar Deconstruction

Barn Burner

March 18, 2022March 20, 2022

US equities closed out a barn burner week with more gains. Media outlets variously attributed

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3 Comments on Barn Burner

Murmurs Of Recession

March 18, 2022March 27, 2022

It’s not all bad news, believe it or not. Well, it really is. But we

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7 Comments on Murmurs Of Recession

Jim Bullard: Fed Should Hike 12 Times In 10 Months

March 18, 2022March 19, 2022

Friday brought more hawkish Fed banter, with Jim Bullard (who, you’re reminded, dissented at the

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25 Comments on Jim Bullard: Fed Should Hike 12 Times In 10 Months

The Shocks Aren’t Over (‘Six Fundamental Bear Market Drivers’)

March 18, 2022March 19, 2022

Equities saw their largest inflow in five weeks, but the nascent bounce in global shares

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2 Comments on The Shocks Aren’t Over (‘Six Fundamental Bear Market Drivers’)

To Be Or Not To Be

March 18, 2022March 18, 2022

News flow was comparatively sparse as equities looked to wrap up their best week since

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5 Comments on To Be Or Not To Be

McElligott On The Fed, The Future And The Rally

March 17, 2022March 18, 2022

The Fed put on what counted as a brave face this week, when the dot

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8 Comments on McElligott On The Fed, The Future And The Rally

Kolanovic Weighs In On Fed, ‘Mutually Assured Economic Destruction’

March 17, 2022March 25, 2022

Marko Kolanovic is bullish on emerging market assets, and “in particular” China. Although the headline

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Marko Kolanovic Sees ‘Great Opportunities,’ More Energy Upside

March 17, 2022March 18, 2022

It’s time to start adding risk. Or at least in market segments that may have

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BOE Condemns Putin, Hikes Rates, Adopts Dour Cadence

March 17, 2022March 23, 2022

The first paragraph of the Bank of England’s March policy statement wasn’t about interest rates.

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1 Comment on BOE Condemns Putin, Hikes Rates, Adopts Dour Cadence

Good Cop Xi Conjures Historic Two-Day Stock Surge

March 17, 2022March 17, 2022

If Beijing’s goal was to trigger a massive squeeze on the way to engineering the

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1 Comment on Good Cop Xi Conjures Historic Two-Day Stock Surge

(No) Significant Progress

March 17, 2022March 21, 2022

The Kremlin on Thursday said reports of major progress in peace talks with Ukraine were

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8 Comments on (No) Significant Progress

Don’t Worry, Jerome Powell Has A Plan

March 16, 2022March 17, 2022

The US economy can “flourish” in an environment of tighter Fed policy, Jerome Powell said

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12 Comments on Don’t Worry, Jerome Powell Has A Plan

Fed Delivers Liftoff, Signals Seven 2022 Hikes

March 16, 2022March 25, 2022

The Fed raised rates by 25bps and signaled seven hikes for 2022 following March’s policy

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16 Comments on Fed Delivers Liftoff, Signals Seven 2022 Hikes

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Monthly Letter

  • The Arbitrageur

Recent Comments

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Monthly Letters

The Arbitrageur

October 29, 2026October 29, 2026

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

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