The Roarin’ 2020s And The Death Of The Bond Bull
In this century's iteration of the "Roarin' 20s," the word "Roarin" has a decidedly negative connotation. First, a deadly pathogen roared around the globe, leaving millions dead in its wake. Then, two years later, the Russian military machine roared into Ukraine, plunging Europe into the worst security crisis since World War II. The implications for the global economy are profound. You could make a very long list, but if you wanted to encapsulate the macro and market impact of two crises in tw
4 thoughts on “The Roarin’ 2020s And The Death Of The Bond Bull”
Makes sense to me that a SWF would diversify across all stores of value so then the question becomes about allocation sizing. Lowers risk through diversification. The basic logic is there for it to happen and freezing reserves does incentivize a shift from liquidity in the moment to liquidity in uncertainty.
All these countries were sending valuable goods to the US for decades, getting nothing in return, but building “wealth” in the form of entries in a ledger. Joke is on them. This is a wake-up call that maybe balanced trade is not a bad idea.
“ nothing in return”is a very simplistic view.
Developing efficiencies and capacities in the immediate sense with the populations prospects improving is hardly nothing.
“ Store of value“ is a very convenient lie we tell ourselves about our situation that attempts to make the future finite.
The SWFs on that list that may be very motivated to avoid US/EU bonds are basically only the Chinese ones. The Dubai, Qatar, etc SWFs are probably not very motivated. To recall prior discussions here, your worry about US/EU sanctions is proportional to your plans to do something so big and reprehensible that those sanctions might target you. The chance of Abu Dhabi invading a European or NorAm country is . . .