Just one more day of this before the weekend, when we’ll all get to put up the plywood and hide in the basement as Irma turns Florida into Atlantis and Kim turns Tokyo into Dresden…
“At the same time, the recent volatility in the exchange rate represents a source of uncertainty which requires monitoring with regard to its possible implications for the medium-term outlook for price stability.”
But you’ve got to think Mario Draghi isn’t looking forward to Thursday’s presser.
Although no one expected any actual change to policy rates or the APP, markets are expecting quite a lot in terms of outright jawboning, telepathy, side-eyes, winks, nods, or really anything at all to suggest that the ECB is going to try and keep a lid on euro strength and/or is prepping an exit plan from stimulus.
“There may be all sorts of dragons and monsters up in those hills.”
“But there was a far smarter reason why Jackson Hole reverted back to an academic exercise and post-GFC policy retrospective.”
Your refund will be escaping this death trap with your life…
Up, up and away.
“Frankly, if they won’t or, more likely, can’t tell us what they are planning to do, they should take a pass and stick to their economics and orthodoxies.”
“No, a surprise will most likely look like a Central Bank chief that attempts to put policy back on the previous tighter path.”
Just biding time…
Score one for the crowd who thinks that Mario Draghi is going to have a difficult time keeping a lid on euro strength.
“Confidently dismissing the process as harmless for markets is a luxury they can’t indulge in.”
There’s a lot of commentary floating around out there this morning about the euro ahead of Jackson Hole. The single currency’s relentless rise heading into August was starting to weigh on eurozone equities and needless to say, excessive FX strength isn’t something that’s welcomed with open arms by central banks that are still engaged in…
“One of the most dangerous things in trading is to confuse what one thinks ‘should’ happen with the forecast of what ‘will’ happen.”
Ok, so strap in, because this promises to be an interesting week. August has proven to be the month that risk assets finally took notice of the exceptionally precarious geopolitical backdrop. Risk assets have reacted unfavorably to the combination of rising tensions on the Korean peninsula and the seemingly terminal decline of the Trump administration. As…
