albert edwards currency wars dollar euro FX mario draghi

World’s Favorite Bear Says The ‘Currency War Will Explode To Life As President Trump Explodes In Anger’

"I expect unlimited unilateral FX intervention".

"I expect unlimited unilateral FX intervention".
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4 comments on “World’s Favorite Bear Says The ‘Currency War Will Explode To Life As President Trump Explodes In Anger’

  1. efchristos

    Hi to all.

    “There are contrarian indicators and then there are contrarian indicators — and then there’s Albert Edwards, the pessimistic Societe Generale market analyst who thinks his dethronement as the top-ranked advisor in one survey is a sign that investors ought to watch.

    In an analysis both cheeky and self-deprecating, the longtime market bear laments his loss of standing after 15 years on top in the European Extel poll and figures it must mean that the record-breaking bull market run is coming to an end. Edwards’ team at SocGen ceded the top spot for global strategy to a JP Morgan team led by Mislav Matejka.”

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/05/socgens-albert-edwards-says-his-loss-of-top-strategist-is-a-market-signal.html

  2. At the risk of bridging forums , I call attention to H..”s post on SA this morning… Eloquent as that was it was an argument that was strongly rooted in Philosophy .. Because this time if it is not different it is an outlier at the very least and because of this it is what inspires conspiracy theories . As I noted in past musings sometimes reducing things to basic elements help separate forests and trees…. That having been said when the going gets as confusing as it has been even the most elaborate explanations such as Charlie M can stand a pretty good chance of failure because the power of CB’s is yet to be tested…..
    It might be that we for a short time are going to drift from the world of reality to a world dominated in Metaphysical reality..The flaw in all what I say here is that “short Time” is not defined..We live in interesting times !!

  3. My question is whether any intervention in the currency markets can really be expected to have long term effects. I’m sure traders will get burnt when they are surprised. But I question whether it will make a difference over the course of several months.
    I suppose one way the government could effectively make the dollar weaker would be to drop the tariffs, which should make other currencies appreciate.
    I also wonder about his comment that the Europeans should use a fiscal stimulus. Are they well organized enough to coordinate a fiscal stimulus?

  4. Currency intervention after a short period works only if others cooperate and if there are also fundamental changes in policy to match. Do you think EU, Britain, and the rest of the world want to cooperate with America First? Do you think the US is capable of tightening fiscal and loosening monetary policy in a sound planned way? If you do then the intervention will prove successful. If not, which is likely, currency intervention will only serve to lose the US Treasury funds. It seems increasingly likely that we are going to face a significant slowdown within the next few quarters, a slowdown that can morph into a recession with even a small shock. It is highly likely this shock will emanate out of the corporate sector due to bad lending and overleverage of balance sheets. Beware the stock jockeys touting “valuation”.

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