This Is Where The Next EM Crisis Will Start

“Fragile Five” and “an alternative version of monetary policy reality.”


Strategist: ‘Asian Asset Boom’ Has One More Round To Go

“Clarity around the next Fed chair, and hence the rate path, should provide a boost to global assets, particularly emerging markets.”

One Strategist Asks: ‘Dude, Where’s The Contagion?’

“Successful trading depends on a delicate balancing act between confidence and fear. If you stray off the path, it’s best to take a few minutes to get your bearings before rushing headlong again.”

One Bank’s Clients Know Exactly What To Do In The Event Of A Vicious Carry Trade Unwind…

And the punchline: if that plays out, there’s only one thing to do…

‘Believe Me.’

What could go wrong?

‘Keep One Eye On Left Field’: Here Are The Most Important Q4 Market Themes

“As always, keep one eye on left field for the “unknown unknown” that could shift the market’s thinking.”

‘Bearishness Comes At You Pretty Fast’

“The difference this time is that those macro pressures are being combined with a broad array of idiosyncratic negatives.”

Dollar On The Move, EM Under Pressure As Fed Holds Firm On Trajectory

Dollar bears on the back foot all of the sudden…

This Hasn’t Happened Since Brexit

Sustainable? Probably not.

‘Over-Analysis’ Is Going To Keep You From Making 230% On EM Stocks – But That’s Your Problem

“Can’t be distracted with what’s goin’ on with the war, or what’s wrong with the economy – stop worrying about that!”…

Let the bull market do its job. 

‘Investors May Have Wandered Into A Casino Without Realizing It’

So one hopes investors are cognizant of the possibility that they are chasing an EM FX rally more than they are “investing” in emerging markets with this trade.

EM’s Best Run Since 2004 Continues As Jobs Number Greenlights ‘Carry’ On

That’s all fine and good and we wish anyone who’s still in this trade the best, but…

This Hasn’t Happened Since 2005

Just how enamored are equity investors with emerging markets relative to the U.S.? 

The Risks For This Asset Class Are Asymmetrically Skewed To The Downside

Given that the weaker dollar and a slow pace of policy normalization are key pillars of support for emerging markets, and given that the same thing that’s weighing on the dollar (Donald Trump) is also behind fleeting risk-off moves, it makes sense that EM would outperform USD HY. But…

Is Anyone Worried About Emerging Market Stocks Sitting At 3-Year Highs?

…this is another one of those scenarios where everyone seems to be pretty damn sure that nothing can go wrong.