“Would you ever consider a mortgage?” That was the question posed to me earlier this
Category: economy
US Private Hiring Solid, Pay Growth Tame In Sunny ADP Release
The US labor market’s resilient. Just like US consumers. Those two things — jobs and
Fed’s Labor Market Narrative Intact After Mixed JOLTS Release
Job openings across the world’s largest economy rose above eight million for the first time
US Factory Recession Rolls Into Second Year With Election Looming
The US manufacturing sector just spent another month in contraction. “Breaking news,” I know. No
He Hates These Dots
Jerome Powell spoke Monday at a NABE conference in Nashville, where he said a whole
Results (Still) Pending
The good news is, a marquee measure of US pending home sales no longer sits
Fed Math: 3% Growth, 2.8% Core Inflation, 218k Jobless Claims = 50bps Cuts
If the US labor market’s Clark Griswold driving full-speed through a “road closed” sign on
New Versus ‘Used’: A Tale Of Two Housing Markets
New US home sales held up pretty well in August, data out Wednesday showed, even
Here Come The Refis
After eight straight weekly declines, mortgage rates in the US are close to achieving a
What If The US Consumer Never Totally Breaks?
I’m always on the look out for disparities and contradictions in the macro narrative. Not
I’ve Got A Bad Feeling About This
Confidence among American consumers slipped in September. “Slipped” is a bit euphemistic. “Deteriorated” is probably
US Housing Market Is Sad Joke With Incomes 30% Below Affordability Level
Typical homes are hugely expensive. And typical people aren’t especially well-off. You do the math.
Fed Advised To ‘Move Cautiously’ On Cuts As PMI Price Gauges Rise
“The Fed cannot totally shift its focus away from its inflation target,” S&P Global’s Chris
A BeLabored Point
In his pivotal Jackson Hole address, Jerome Powell said that in his view, it “seems
After The Cut
There’s plenty of data on offer this week across the world’s largest economy. And even
The Garbage Man
Does anybody know what China’s doing? Because I don’t know what China’s doing. And I
Should’ve Bought In Bulk
The fortunate among us have a tendency to extrapolate our own economic circumstances onto everyone
Construction, Rates And The Misnomer That Is ‘Affordable’
Thank lower rates? Maybe. Probably. Sure. New construction data released ahead of the Fed on
‘Nervous Bulls’ Almost Certain Of Soft Landing
Cash levels ticked down and growth expectations rebounded tentatively from an eight-month low, helping to
US Retail Sales Leave FOMC Narrative Unchanged
Mercifully — because the Fed and traders scarcely needed any additional variables to incorporate while
The Fate Of The World
“It’s truly amazing how the fate of the entire world seems to rest on whether
Don’t Forget The Data
Don’t forget the data. It’s a big week for monetary policy, with the Fed set
Did China Just Lose The Growth Target?
How long before they stop reporting the numbers? I’m just joking. I think. But if
It’s Gotta Be 50, Jay: The Case For A Half-Point Fed Cut
“Hey, Jay. Why don’t you just get started?” Asking for Bill Dudley. With just days
America’s Inflation Worries Fade With Fed On Deck
At 2.7%, Americans’ year-ahead inflation expectations slipped to the lowest since December of 2020 early
Communist Embrace
“Common prosperity.” That’s what Xi Jinping’s ostensibly trying to promote and propagate in China. He’d
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