US Jobless Claims Fall Again. Unit Labor Costs Rise Least In A Decade

If markets needed an offset for a weak read on US private sector hiring, jobless claims obliged.

Remember: Bad news is just bad news these days, which is to say no one celebrates weak US macro data on the notion that the dovish read-through for monetary policy outweighs the risk of a hard landing.

So, any additional evidence to suggest the US economy might be rolling over in earnest is “too much of a bad thing,” so to speak.

With that in mind, initial filers were just 227,000 in the week to August 31, down 5,000, an eight-week low and the second-fewest since May.

The four-week moving average is now just 230,000, the lowest in three months.

Needless to say, that’s not consistent with a slowdown, let alone a recession. To reiterate: You need at least 250,000 on the initial filers headline, and probably something more like 300,000, to trigger even the faintest of alarm bells. Continuing claims fell too, slipping to 1.838 million, a 10-week low.

Meanwhile, unit labor costs were revised sharply lower in the final estimate for Q2. The 0.4% QoQ SAAR print was less than half the initially reported 0.9% and a big downside surprise to consensus, which expected just a marginal downward revision.

The figure below shows the YoY ULC series, which is to say the seasonally adjusted change from the same quarter a year ago.

Q2’s 0.3% advance on that measure was the slowest in over a decade. As you can see, that series maps pretty well with core CPI.

The ULC revision, while certainly not headline news, should add incrementally to the Fed’s confidence as the Committee takes the first step down the road to a less restrictive policy stance.

Still-low jobless claims continue to suggest the US labor market, while plainly cooling, isn’t on the precipice of a brake-slam moment, although I’m starting to question the usefulness of that series.


 

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One thought on “US Jobless Claims Fall Again. Unit Labor Costs Rise Least In A Decade

  1. The pandemic really changed a lot of reaction functions of economic entities. Employment seems to be one. Having been burned by difficulties hiring it appears employers are doing everything they can to retain workers. In many cases that means cutting costs by restricting pay raises and hours worked, not firing outright. In housing, turnover is down because of the lock in effect of existing low rate mortgages, benefitting indirectly, new home sales. Two more obvious examples, surely there are others. It will probably awhile before things shake out and a new normal takes place. Right now forecasting is really difficult because the fundamentals are still so different.

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