The message is loud and fucking clear: the vol. seller’s/ carry trader’s paradise and the risk party that’s made every homegamer with some SPY and QQQ look like a guru for the past eight years depends on DM central bankers staying some modicum of dovish. And on that score, bad data helps.
Author: therealheisenberg
Stocks Dare The Fed
“This puts the Fed in a terrible place”…
Caught Red-Handed? That’s Ok, Mr. Trump. Just Blame Hillary. #SAD
“So pathetic. Attacking the DNC and Hillary Clinton is the Trump administration’s go-to, tired, weak maneuver. It cannot hide the mountain of revelations that is threatening to crumble on top of them at any moment. #SAD!”
‘Something Tangible Better Happen Soon’: As Bank Stocks Tumble, Trump ‘Hope’ Meets Reality
“Right now you’re making money purely on multiple expansion related to policy and I suspect it may be a bridge too far.”
In Scathing Op-Ed, Krauthammer Proclaims: ‘The Trump Defense Is Officially Dead’
“The Russia scandal has entered a new phase, and there’s no going back”…
‘Yellen Is Not A Bubble Popper’: One Bank Is Sick Of ‘This Narrative’
“But it is not true that the Fed is hiking to address vulnerabilities in the financial system or “pop†asset bubbles.”
Russian Lawyer Brought ‘FBI-Spotting’ Soviet Spy To Meeting With Trump Jr.
“… a former Soviet counterintelligence officer who is suspected by some U.S. officials of having ongoing ties to Russian intelligence.”
Investors Flee To Super-Safe Nasdaq As Rate Hike Odds Fall After CPI Miss
“Guess what people immediately did? Why, they fled to the “safety” of overvalued, high-flying tech stocks, that’s what they did.”
‘This Increases The Anxiety’: Gold Surges With Euro, Sterling On CPI Miss
“Gold is the net beneficial of this data [as] this increases the anxiety and creates a lot of questions about the current strategy which the Fed is using.”
Dollar, Yields Dive After CPI Disappoints
Ok, well the biggest econ print of the week is in and it’s a miss.
Trader: ‘Everyone Is Wrong But Me’
“And now? Dovish Fed speak, wavering ECB leaks, resolute BOJ actions, completely mixed emotions from the BOE and suddenly it doesn’t feel nearly as fun.”
This Is How Much Janet Yellen Did For Emerging Markets This Week
So yeah, “carry” on – but just remember that “what goes up”….
ECB Tries To Wake Up ‘Exceedingly’ Sleepy Robots With Reuters Leak – Fails
“The important thing is not to pre-commit and keep it very gradual.”
Key Calls (Friday): Upgrades, Downgrades & Initiations
You need an upgrade.
Trump: We Need See-Through Border Wall So ‘Cray’ Mexicans Don’t Hit Agents With ’60-Pound Sacks Of Drugs’
“As horrible as it sounds, when they throw the large sacks of drugs over, and if you have people on the other side of the wall, you don’t see them — they hit you on the head with 60 pounds of stuff? It’s over. As cray as that sounds”…
‘That’s When You Hang Up And Call The FBI’: Asha Rangappa On Trump Jr.
“The deeper question is whether members of Trump’s administration can uphold the trust that has been placed in them as stewards of the government they have been chosen to lead.”
If Buffett Were Trading Macro, He Would Have Been Fired, ‘Swashbuckler’ Says
“What if Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway had a 12% annual stop loss, after which it would quit trading until the new calendar year?It turns out that Buffett would have been stopped out in 18 of the 30 years.”
Dow Closes At Record High – So Does Central Banker Confusion
So yeah, another day, another largely fruitless effort to figure out what exactly the message
A ‘High Quality’ Interview With Donald Trump Jr. Courtesy Of The New Yorker
What about @realdonaldtrump?
Again, no. That is my dad’s online persona, which is a more attentive father than his real-life persona.
That’s Not Low Volatility, THIS Is Low Volatility…
We both agreed that while suppressed equity vol. grabs all the headlines, it is in fact credit’s Teflon performance that wins the John Gotti prize for “most bulletproof asset class.”Â
You’re Just Going To Let U.S. Oil Producers Drink Themselves To Death Aren’t You?
“We believe this may not send a requisite message to rein in drilling activity for all producers. On the flip side, it sends a theoretical message for producers to issue more debt.”
Are You ‘Willfully Blind?’ Get Off The Trump Train Before It Crashes
“It is obvious to all except the willfully blind that we now have a president who observes none of the norms, rules or expectations of his office and will pressure anyone at any time if doing so serves his personal interests.”
Did Mario Draghi And The Wall Street Journal Just Engineer A Bond Selloff?
These fuckers are quite literally trying to engineer a Thursday bond sell off before our very eyes and the idea seems to be that they can do it without risking any concurrent weakness in equities because no one will want to sell with Yellen still talking.
Trader: ‘Conspiracy Theories’ Only Work If Everyone Sticks To The Script
“But they seem to cling to the notion that they must do so without any knock-on effects to the broader category of assets. They do so love the calming sounds from the trickle-down effect.”
Because Nothing Says ‘Bullish’ Like Nuclear War…
Nothing says “buy, buy, buy” like a nuclear war, which is why it makes sense
‘The End Result Are These Violent Whipsaws’: Don’t Think Too Hard
“This Fed transparency has become more of a liability than an asset. Instead of providing policy clarity, it creates confusion as various factions of the Federal Reserve board debate their positions in a public forum.’
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