Rates are too low and inflation isn’t likely to drop below 4% until at least
Author: therealheisenberg
The Great Swindler
Back in April, during Berkshire’s first in-person annual meeting since 2019, Warren Buffett described inflation
Zoltan Pozsar Saves The Western World
Those calling for a quick return to 2% inflation in advanced economies are “naively optimistic.”
Zoltan Pozsar Bears Witness
“If there is trust, trade works. If trust is gone, it doesn’t.” So said Zoltan
One Thing, One Last Scare, One Right-Tail
Jerome Powell isn’t likely to do the “one thing” that could durably tighten financial conditions.
Are We Asking The Wrong Inflation Questions? Again?
What if rate hikes make inflation worse? It’s a question worth asking. Not in the
The Revenge Of ‘Econ 101’
News flow slowed to something approximating a trickle ahead of Jackson Hole, a consequence of
Two Years Later, ‘A Completely Unbalanced Situation’
The amount of digital ink devoted to Jackson Hole over the past several days was
Affordability Takes A Toll, But Pending Home Sales Stabilize
Pending US home sales receded only slightly in July, figures out Wednesday showed. The 1%
‘So, We Raised Interest Rates’
“If you get to the mid-3s or maybe even a little bit higher, and then
Here’s How Much Student Debt Forgiveness Will Cost
Update: On Wednesday, the Biden administration confirmed $10,000 in debt relief per borrower subject to
US Housing Recession Worsens As New Home Sales Collapse
New US home sales plunged in July, closely watched data out Tuesday showed. The 511,000
Why One Popular Quant Is ‘Terrified’ Of Jackson Hole
Following an impressively durable summer rally aided and abetted by systematic flows and squeeze dynamics,
In Europe: Recession, 500-Year Drought
The European economy is in trouble. I doubt that’s news to anyone. But it was
EU Energy Panic Goes Full GameStop As Russia Tensions Rise
At a certain point, you run out of creative hyperbole. Such is the case with
Biden Shouldn’t Be Too ‘Generous’ With Student Debt: Larry Summers
Larry Summers kept himself in the news Monday with what he surely realized would be
‘You Are Now Free To Move About The Cabin’
The volatility expansion window is now open. The question is whether discretionary investors look to
Cash Is King
Cash is king. And not just because these are uncertain times. For most of the
Jay Powell’s Pain Trade
Pain. The path to lower inflation in the US goes through economic pain. And Larry
When You’re In A Hole…
It’s all about Jackson Hole in the new week, which, as usual, will feel a
‘Leap Of Faith’: Summer Rally Has S&P At Goldman’s Year-End Target
US equities reached Goldman’s year-end target four months early. As you can imagine, the bank’s
A Sticky Situation
“Peak inflation” may be upon us (in the US, anyway), but the relief for markets
Goldilocks And Other Summer Stories
There’s talk of an autumn “reaping” following a summer stock rally which, depending on who
Ok, What Now? Wall Street Looks Around And Ahead
It’s “Ok, what now?” time. Both for equities and the economy. The summer stock rally
The Bull-Bear
Not all bears are alike. Take the American black bear, for example. They’re typically shy,
Hot Summers, Cold Winters
“Apocalyptic.” That’s how one popular strategist described the latest PPI print out of Germany, the
Patient Bears
“Everyone is bearish but no one has sold stocks,” BofA’s Michael Hartnett said, in the
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