In this week’s macro preview, I derided economists, which is par for the course in these pages.

My disdain for the profession grows by the year. As I put it in “Chasing The Dragon” (go read it if you haven’t), the notion that “soft” sciences can be refined, reformed and forged in the image of physics through iterative metricizing and tortured mathematicalization is comically quixotic, inherently futile and risks sterilizing the disciplines in the name of claiming for them a kind of rigor not well-suited for inquiry into the vagaries of human behavior.

When you throw in the fact that the Wall Street economists against whose forecasts key macro data is measured are paid multiples of what American capitalism has decided is adequate and fair for people whose work produces a tangible benefit to society — people like elementary school teachers, ER nurses and first responders, for example — the whole thing’s rather distasteful.

If they (economists) were in the habit of being right about the economy, that’d go some way towards ameliorating the unfortunate pay disparities described above. But they’re not. They’re wrong more often (probably far more often) than they’re right. And how could it be otherwise? It’s not a hard science. Again: Read “Chasing The Dragon.” You’ll love it.

It’s with that in mind that consensus for a 0.2% core CPI print from the BLS on Tuesday proved wishful thinking for a third month, precisely as I suggested it would in the macro preview mentioned here at the outset.

The unrounded core print for October was 0.296%, down only slightly from 0.335% in September. As a quick reminder: Last year’s government shutdown meant the BLS wasn’t able to compute a YoY print for the CPI indexes this week.

The MoM gain on the headline, all-items gauge was 0.350% unrounded. That too was warmer than expected, although obviously down from September’s pace as oil prices moderated.

This release wasn’t a complete disaster, but it was close. Transportation services printed a 0.8% MoM increase, the largest sequential advance since January, for example. Grocery prices rose 0.4% in October from September, the sharpest increase since April. The shelter gauge rose 0.3%. And on and on.

As for the CPI-derived versions of so-called “supercore” inflation (i.e., core services price growth excluding housing), core CPI services stripping out the shelter index rose 0.389% MoM, which was actually faster than September’s monthly pace. Core CPI ex-OER/rent rose 0.399%, slightly slower versus the prior month, but the same 0.4% on a rounded basis.

When taken with last week’s barnburner headline hiring print from the BLS and the AHE overshoot that accompanied the October jobs report, one might argue the Fed should hike 50bps in December. Just ask Chris Waller.

“Even if, as I expect, the monthly rate of inflation improves in October, I am leaning toward supporting an increase in our policy rate of 25bps at the FOMC’s December meeting,” Waller told an audience in London on Tuesday, a few hours prior to the release of the inflation figures.

“But if the October CPI inflation data out later today are similar to the past two monthly readings — with core CPI inflation around 0.3% or even higher — I believe a 50bps hike in the policy rate should be considered at the December meeting,” he went on. “Hiking only 25bps would put our credibility at risk, a risk I am not eager to take.”

Remember: Waller was widely considered a Trump ally on the board. The election results, it would appear, have attenuated Uncle Saddam’s capacity to intimidate the technocrats. We’re gonna need more mock trials for Fed officials at the White House.