Someone’s Got Work For You

Jobs. They’re out there if you want ’em. Allegedly.

According to Tuesday’s only notable US macro update, there were 7.523 million open positions across the world’s largest economy on the last business day of September. That was well ahead of consensus.

The 333,000 MoM increase on the JOLTS headline was the largest since April. Hires, meanwhile, rose to the highest since March.

The figure above shows you the big picture. Both of these series have normalized around levels seen prior to the pandemic.

I won’t pretend anyone cares about this release. They don’t. When the Fed was at pains to avert a wage-price spiral, the JOLTS release took on an outsized role in the policy calculus, and thereby became an eminently tradable event despite being reported on what amounts to a two-month delay. But those days are long gone.

Notably, the quit rate moved up to 2.1, the highest since June of 2025. Overall quits, at 3.365 million, were the most since March of last year. Layoffs remained low.

The so-called “jobs-to-jobless” ratio (i.e., the JOLTS headline versus the employment level from the BLS’s household survey) rose to 1.058, marking a sixth month above 1.0.

Translation: There are still more open jobs than jobless Americans actively seeking work.

The usual caveat applies: Just because there’s a job for you doesn’t necessarily mean it’s a job you want.

Recall that the closely-watched labor differential in the October vintage of the Conference Board’s confidence survey improved smartly this month, but the rebound was almost entirely attributable to an uptick in the share of respondents who described jobs as “plentiful.”

As the figure below shows, the share in the poll who said jobs were “hard to get” loitered above 21%, near the highest of Donald Trump’s second term.

My guess is that a meaningful number of Americans who say jobs are “hard to get” actually mean there aren’t enough vacancies for jobs they want. That’s going to become a bigger and bigger problem as AI antiquates more highly-paid white collar work.

Now me personally, I’d rather go to jail than punch a clock. As I recently told my (married) high school sweetheart while attempting for the umpteenth time to warn her away from the self-aggrandizing legend whose adventures animate the Monthly Letters (which she reads religiously), “I’d rob banks before I’d get a real job. Literally.”

So, God knows I sympathize if you’re loath to accept that open assistant manager position at the local Chili’s when your CV plainly indicates you should be gainfully employed in a role you aren’t embarrassed to tell your friends about.

But… well, don’t adopt my mentality. Seriously, don’t. Just take the Chili’s role. Or hell, apply at McDonald’s. If your significant other exhorts you to “get a real job” after you come home smelling like fryer oil, just remind her that when the McRib comes back, she’ll wish she hadn’t been so damn condescending.

And look: If you just can’t do it. Honestly can’t. Then come by the Plaza Hotel. “I’ve got work for you.”


 

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