Barnburner US Jobs Report Recasts Narrative

It’s a barnburner!

The US economy added 162,000 jobs on net last month, the BLS said Friday, in a jobs report that handily topped consensus (and every estimate, for that matter) on the headline readout. Economists expected just 55,000 from the establishment survey.

Even better (or worse if you’re looking for an excuse not to raise rates in the face of elevated inflation), the accompanying revisions saw July’s headline adjusted to show a 21,000 gain against the initially-reported 23,000 loss. June’s headline was also revised up. It now reflects a 31,000 job addition.

With the revisions and the big upside surprise for August, the three-month average is 71,000. Note that a consensus print for August and no revisions would’ve left that metric at just 17,000.

The breakdown showed private payrolls rose 127,000, triple the ADP tally for August and a country mile ahead of the 50,000 consensus.

Gains were led last month by bars and restaurants, which hired 59,000 people. Local government education chipped in 42,000. Manufacturing contributed 16,000 and health care 13,000. The only drag came from the information sector, which shed 23,000 positions.

Happily, average hourly earnings were in-line at 0.3% MoM and 3.1% YoY. Those might’ve easily overshot given the strength and breadth of the hiring impulse. If they had, it would’ve added to the hawkish read-across for policy from the muscular hiring headline and upward revisions.

On the household survey side, the unemployment rate was steady at 4.1% (4.141% unrounded).

The participation rate actually moved up if you can believe it, to 61.6%, making the unchanged UNR that much more impressive.

Hell, even the employment level in the household survey rose, and not by a little bit: The gain there was 569,000.

It’s just barely an exaggeration to say this recasts the narrative around the US labor market. “Torpid” apparently isn’t the right adjective after all.

In terms of the September FOMC meeting, this jobs report raises the stakes significantly for next Friday’s CPI release. If it’s warm, Kevin Warsh will be under a lot more pressure to hike than he would’ve been had August payrolls come in weak.


 

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