If you’re curious as to whether upside to energy prices from the war is sufficient to offset the economic fallout for America’s energy-exporting regional allies in the Gulf, the answer’s “not really.”

In addition to recurring Iranian attacks, the closure of the Strait left quite a bit of product stranded. Although I doubt seriously the notion that sundry royals will give the Pentagon the proverbial boot, the damage to local infrastructure and the disruption to energy flows certainly altered the risk-reward calculus around hosting US military assets.

With that mind, it’s worth noting that the Saudis are reportedly lining up billions in new loans through Riyadh’s National Debt Management Center. Aramco’s likewise in preliminary discussions with banks.

The figure below gives you some context for the impact of the war on the Kingdom’s finances and economy.

The hit to GDP in Q2 was the largest since COVID, but sharply higher prices for what barrels the Saudis managed to sell, combined with a 4% decline in outlays, saw the budget deficit narrow sharply.

The new fundraising push, whether or not it pans out, suggests the Saudis remain ready and willing to explore “opportunities” and tap “private channels,” as the NDMC puts it, to stay abreast or ahead of the finance ministry’s funding needs.

Back in May, the NDMC congratulated itself for completing Riyadh’s 2026 borrowing plan prior to the onset of full-on hostilities in the region. “Approximately 90% of the Kingdom’s funding needs [are] secured,” the center said, lauding the merits of “efficien[t] proactive planning and execution flexibility.”

Fast forward four months and the center’s lining up another $8 billion in loans, sources told Bloomberg, which helpfully noted that between them, the finance ministry, Aramco and PIF raised $17 billion from bond sales already this year. There was no immediate word on how much Aramco’s looking to borrow in any new loan deal.

Assuming the new loans are ultimately agreed, it’d be at least the fourth time in 10 years that the Saudis took a large sovereign loan. If you count two smaller deals in 2024 and 2025, it’s half a dozen.

The frequency of these deals is likely to pick up going forward, as the Kingdom pushes ahead with Mohammed bin Salman’s grandiose vision for the nation’s future. In December, the Kingdom arranged a $13 billion syndicated loan, with the proceeds earmarked for non-oil infrastructure.

The idea, obviously, is to avoid a scenario where public borrowing costs rise as a result of oversupply. As noted, the Kingdom and related entities are very active in debt markets, and while traditional investors will be more than happy to keep loaning the crown prince money against Ghawar, both the government and Aramco are keen to explore “new types of instruments to attract different sets of investors,” as Bloomberg put it.

Between the government, Aramco and PIF, the Kingdom’s access to capital is basically unlimited, and you can say more or less the same thing for the UAE. But whereas the Emirates have shifted their foreign policy to reflect the US-Israeli view that the region can’t realize its full potential as a haven for international capital with the regime in Iran intact, Riyadh’s proven more reluctant to push the regime change envelope to its (il)logical conclusion, despite its rivalry with Tehran and for all the sectarian strife.

Spoiler alert: There’s no “right” answer to the Iran question. But as Sunday and Monday’s fireworks make clear, the region won’t be shedding its reputation for violence and volatility anytime soon.

Of course, that’s never stopped investors before. And it’s not going to make banks balk at loaning Riyadh another $10 billion any more than the murder of a Washington Post journalist or tales of “imprisoned” princesses compelled Wall Street to question the sincerity of “reformist” agendas in Saudi Arabia and the UAE.