This’ll be a relatively quiet week on the macro front, leaving the onus for excitement on Wednesday’s FOMC minutes and developments out of the Mideast, where Iran’s bracing for a new round of measures aimed at throttling its already beleaguered economy.

The Fed minutes would be a modicum of interesting were it not for the fact that virtually all of the data released since last month’s meeting argues against a rate hike.

Put differently: July’s disappointing jobs report, benign readouts on both CPI and PPI and a poor showing for the retail sales control group suggest the trio of hawkish dissents at the July FOMC had it “wrong.”

That’ll make the minutes read more stale than they would anyway. There’s no indication as of yet that Kevin Warsh intends to introduce a truncated format of the meeting minutes. The account of the June gathering, Warsh’s first at the helm, was status quo. I assume the same’ll be true of the July minutes.

It’s difficult to see a path to a Fed hike in September at this juncture. Even if the August jobs report and CPI release argue for tighter policy, the deceleration in the labor market in recent months is enough air cover to keep rates on hold. And don’t forget: The BLS will deliver the preliminary estimate for the QCEW annual benchmark revision to the establishment survey data on August 28, the same day Warsh will likely speak at Jackson Hole.

The figure above shows you the average of the NFP headline, ADP hiring and Revelio labs’ national payrolls proxy. I’m not sure how seriously to take the latter (or the former for that matter), but they were directionally consistent in July, when all three pointed to a slowdown, although only the BLS release reflected a net job loss.

The same caveat applies: As long as equity prices are supported, so too should be the consumption impulse as the vaunted “wealth effect” works its magic in the upper-half of America’s “K-shaped” economy.

In that context, last week’s retail sales update was a bit concerning to the extent it suggests negative real wage growth and dour consumer sentiment are finally biting hard enough that financial frivolity among the upper-middle-class is no longer sufficient to offset retrenchment among the proletariat.

The figure above’s a reminder: The average of Michigan sentiment and the Conference Board’s confidence survey was still below the mid-2022 nadir in July even after rebounding from May’s hopeless lows. If the preliminary read on the Michigan survey for August is any indication, that metric may well slip again this month.

To my mind, Warsh has more than enough excuses to hold the line (figuratively and literally) at the September FOMC. And unless you think he’s going to hike the week before the mid-terms (can you imagine Donald Trump’s reaction to such an affront?), that means December’s probably the next “live” Fed meeting.

In addition to the FOMC minutes, market participants will get a smattering of housing data out of the US this week. Builder sentiment for August is due Monday (the NAHB headline’s seen at a despondent 33) and government data on new residential construction in July’s up on Tuesday along with NAR pending home sales.

Activity data out of China will also garner some interest early this week. Economists are looking for any signs of life out of retail sales in the world’s second-largest economy and will be watching closely for any further deceleration in fixed investment, which is tracking for an unprecedented second consecutive annual decline.