Once upon a time on America’s roads and highways, traffic congestion was reliably accompanied by signs that read: “Caution: Men Working.”
That signage was phased out over time in the interest of clarity and political correctness (women could be working too, after all), but work sites look very similar today to those of mid-century highway “culture”: Several dozen rotund men (and yeah, they’re always men) stand around watching one of their friends operating a Bobcat.
It’s a frustrating experience for motorists. It’s never clear why traffic needs to be throttled for 25 miles to accommodate one guy pivoting a skid-steer loader around a two-foot by two-foot area of rough pavement.
If there were signage in the Persian Gulf right now, it might read “Caution: Genius Working.” Or, “Caution: Stable Genius Working.” And there would be the US military, all standing around watching Donald Trump and his “very large brain” digging himself a hole, oblivious to the first (and only) rule of holes: When you’re in one, stop digging.
As the figure shows, official traffic through the Strait of Hormuz (i.e., tankers transiting with their transponders on) is down to just a few ships per day after peaking near half the pre-war average late last month.
It was on June 15 when Trump decreed the waterway open for business. “Let the oil flow!” he shouted on TruthSocial, adding that Mideast leaders “have, for the first time, found a President who can help them achieve real Peace.”
Fast forward five weeks and the US and Iran are back to what it’s hard to avoid characterizing as a full-on war. The US military and the IRGC are trading strikes daily, people are dying, including US service-members, Iranian infrastructure’s being targeted and if the oil’s flowing, it’s only because tankers are willing to brave a clandestine route through the Strait with their lights off.
The move in Brent isn’t terribly dramatic, but directionally it’s “wrong way” for Republicans staring down mid-term elections. The global benchmark breached $90 at the highs on Monday. US gas prices, meanwhile, were back above $4, on average.
Apparently, even Hormuz Jeff can’t get through the strait. “Two vessels controlled by one of the industry’s boldest shipowners came under attack,” Bloomberg reported, referring to Dynacom Tankers, an outfit which “has made a reputation during the crisis for finding ways through the strait even when others couldn’t or wouldn’t.” The Guards on Sunday alluded to a pair of Dynacom vessels which “met with accidents” while attempting to make it through.
“As has been the case throughout much of the conflict, the information flow has been sporadic, often leaving investors without any concrete facts to skew the near-term risks for energy prices and US rates,” BMO’s Ian Lyngen remarked, adding that a near total dearth of US macro data “will leave the Treasury market vulnerable to swift moves in oil prices and developments regarding the war” in the days ahead.
There was some indication that Tehran and Washington are still negotiating behind the scenes — and Pakistan and Qatar continue to work around the clock to quell tensions — but if this keeps up, I suspect the IDF might get the green light to send a few more IRGC commanders to that glorious war room in the sky.
On Monday afternoon in Iran, Bagher Ghalibaf, referencing the movement of more US warplanes to the region, said Trump’s “betting on our intelligence being as brief as [his] own IQ.”
Desalinization plant in the region has been hit.
This would be the worst possible escalation.
Waiting to see if China starts buying to replace their oil reserves. Iran doesn’t want to end a war they are winning, but China could exert pressure to open the strait.
An amusing sidenote from over the weekend:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/maria-bartiromo-i-don-t-understand-how-it-is-possible-iran-still-has-the-capability-to-fight-this-way-if-us-obliterated-their-military/ar-AA28eyWQ?ocid=socialshare
The answer, obviously, is that Trump’s not fighting their “military,” he’s fighting a 150k-strong Praetorian Guard that’s been preparing for just this scenario for decades. Their military is obliterated. But you can’t blow up all the missiles and all the drones the same way you can destroy all the planes, air defense batteries and ships. I’m starting to share Trump’s frustration with people’s seeming determination to overlook these distinctions. If, by now, you (and I obviously don’t mean “you, derek,” I mean “you” in the sense of the general public) don’t get this, then you aren’t trying. Everyone with even a passing interest in this conflict should have a basic understanding of who the Guards are, what they are and why Iran’s capacity to fight can be both “obliterated” and not (i.e., why this seems like “Schrödinger’s resistance”). Apparently, the American public isn’t going to put the time and effort in to grasp the nuance of this situation, which means it’s going to continue to look like something it’s not. In light of that, Trump might consider telling Netanyahu that the IDF and Mossad are free to finish the job. I’m not advocating that, but this other stuff’s not working. It’s clear enough now that a Venezuela outcome isn’t on the cards. And the Guards apparently aren’t interested in dropping the Resistance (proper noun) shtick in exchange for a license to rob the Iranian people unfettered and unsanctioned by the US Treasury. And we’re not going to invade. So maybe just loose the blood-thirsty lion? Israel can get this done. There’s no doubt about it. It’d be really, really ugly for a while, and you’d probably end up with another Libya, but it’d get done.
If all the desalination plants are destroyed in that region this whole thing just goes to a different level.
All three parties will be the Great Satan.
I believe from what I read Iran cast the first stone.
It’s not that we’re overlooking the distinction between defeating them militarily and defeating their resistance, it’s that we’re still shocked by how none of this was foreseen when practically the same thing happened in Iraq and Afghanistan. It’s like Putin and Trump seem to be the only ones surprised that their greater militaries can’t pacify the enemy. Literally every war we’ve fought since WW2.
That’s just it, though: It’s not the same thing as Iraq and Afghanistan, “practically” or otherwise. And there are all sorts of Guards/Quds tie-ins with Iraq. It doesn’t matter. I’m pretty close to giving up trying to explain this. It’s exhausting. This is one of those things I was initially excited about from an editorial perspective in 2020 because suddenly everyone understood that my Qassem Soleimani articles to that point weren’t just a manifestation of some personal quirk or esoteric obsession, but by now my Guards-specific knowledge is an albatross, just like all knowledge for that matter. I’d be so much happier if I were stupid.
I hope you can bear through the frustration, I certainly enjoy reading your perspective. It doesn’t matter whether or not I agree or comprehend it fully. You’re original and you make me think about things I might not normally think about, that’s why I’m here. Keep making us think, it doesn’t matter if we don’t all get it.
It’s not that I’m some kind of noted Iran scholar or epic genius, it’s just the same dynamic as anything else where you know more than the average person and the public discourse thereby ends up being frustrating to your ears. Think about what you, Caribbean Breeze, know the most about. I’m sure you’re an expert, official or self-taught, on something, and probably several things. Now imagine everyone’s talking about whatever that/those thing(s) is/are. You’d be frustrated at every, single discrepancy between what the public says and what you know. That’s all it is. It’s not real frustration. It’s not like “My God I’m gonna throw this laptop through a window.” It’s more like “Gahhhd. If I try to explain this the way it needs to be explained we’re going to be here all day, and people don’t want that, they want macro-markets. So do I deep-dive into something only several dozen readers are going to enjoy or do I write three macro-market articles in the same timeframe that several hundred readers will like?”
“Happiness in intelligent people is the rarest thing I know.” -Ernest Hemingway, The Garden of Eden.
Except for Grenada (Caribbean!)
Phew! Thanks. I spent time pondering the ICRG military power versus the regular mititary. The Afganistan parallel makes some sense, but I’ve come to think that the best historical parallel was China 1925-35. The central government could not exert power over many areas of the country which were ruled by warlords. One reason was that the government soldiers pretty much worked month-to-month. Paid in a deteriorating currency.
Not to worry, it’s going to be over shortly (for some reason it reminds me of Young Frankenstein, Madeline Kahn “Coming and going and going and coming, and always too soon!”)
BREAKING: Mediators are working to push the US and Iran into a new ceasefire, per WSJ.
Details include:
Mediators are worried the US and Iran could settle into a pattern where they keep conflict below the level of all-out war but disrupt regional economies indefinitely
Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has now collapsed to just 10 ships per day
Qatar has floated the idea of a 10-day ceasefire and an end to restrictions on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz to cool tensions
Brent crude oil prices continue to trade around $90/barrel
The great Lili Von Shtüpp entertained the boys in Blazing Saddles, not Young Frankenstein. (Sorry, I geek out on Mel Brooks)