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‘No Landing’ Is Back In A Big Way
Don't look now, but "no landing" has (very quietly this time) become the consensus global macro outl
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This concept of no landing seems implausible to me. Landing implies finality, the outcome of a journey, in this case an economic one, that indicates success or failure. No landing implies perpetual motion which, I think everyone realizes, is impossible. Eventually gravity wins and the motion is halted or adjusted in another direction. So then, in the context of the financial picture, no landing should really mean “ask again later” if one were querying the magic 8-ball of economics. We don’t know right now what will happen, and that’s been the status for 3 years now.
Structurally there are many headwinds that could drive a nose dive in this economy. Untamed inflation, AI overinvestment, and AI created job losses come to mind. I suspect there will be no landing until there is one and then it will be the retrospective that shows us what we should have all seen coming all along.
I have argued for some time that the plane (meaning the economy) was actually hijacked on “Liberation Day.”
I am going to keep purchasing shiny gold metal in the meantime!
My guess is that SOMA is to Warsh what free trade is to Trump, so H’s point here is key. When trump realises he’s getting his rate reductions but not his rates down, what will he do?
Why are almost all politicians and every autocrat economically illiterate?
Because the voters who elected them are economically illiterate.