The Fed kept rates on hold Wednesday, as widely expected.

Stephen Miran naturally dissented, but only in favor of a quarter-point cut this time. Chris Waller joined him.

Miran’s four for four on the dissent front. He voted for a 50bps cut at his first three meetings after Donald Trump installed him in Adriana Kugler’s vacant board seat last summer.

Do note: Voting for half-point reductions at successive meetings which all produced quarter-point reductions was indicative of someone performing for an audience of one, not someone voting his carefully considered policy preferences.

Miran wanted rates 50bps lower in September. By December, rates were 75bps lower and he was still voting for a half-point cut. He’d deny this, but it wasn’t about the actual level of rates for Miran, nor where rates were relative to any estimate of neutral. It was about the symbolism of a standing 50bps dissent, which served as an unsubtle reminder that Trump doesn’t just want rates to be cut below neutral, he wants the Fed to be in a hurry about it.

This week’s meeting was supposed to be Miran’s last, but the Jerome Powell legal drama complicates the situation. Following Powell’s revelation that the Fed was served grand jury subpoenas by Pam Bondi’s Justice Department, outgoing GOP senator Thom Tillis said he’ll block Trump’s Fed nominations until the matter’s resolved. That means Miran isn’t going anywhere, or at least not immediately.

As Semafor noted on Tuesday evening, quoting a Wharton professor of financial regulation, “the absence of a Senate-confirmed replacement means the dovish Trump adviser is now at the central bank ‘for the indefinite future.'”

In remarks to Semafor, Tillis reiterated that he isn’t budging until the Powell drama’s “adjudicated.” “I think my position is pretty clear, and I’m here because the DOJ put us here,” Tillis said, adding that if no one on the Republican side stands up for Powell, “you’re giving weight to the idea that the Fed’s no longer independent.”

Trump’s delay in announcing his pick to replace Powell may well be a reflection of the Senate stalemate. Ideally the Senate would know, when the confirmation process begins, that they’re considering both a governor and a new Chair. But that’s a moot point until Tillis and any other Republicans with reservations about the ill-advised lawfare against Powell drop their boycott.

In any case, the new policy statement contained an implicit upgrade to the economic assessment. Activity is expanding at a “solid” pace, the Committee said, while the jobless rate “has shown some signs of stabilization.”

In the December statement, growth was described as “moderate” and missing data for October (as well as a long delay in publishing jobs figures post-shutdown) meant that policymakers had little choice but to say the UNR had “edged up.”

Notably, the January statement dropped language judging that downside risks to employment were rising. Now, the balance of risk assessment says only that the Committee’s “attentive” to both sides of its dual mandate. So, at least in word, policy’s no longer asymmetrically skewed towards protecting labor market downside even if that means countenancing a persistent inflation overshoot.

All in all, the statement tweaks felt unavoidably hawkish, but Waller joining Miran’s dissent may take the edge off.