If you’re looking for recession canaries, you won’t find them in the marquee measure of US services sector activity.

Hot on the heels of a better-than-expected private sector hiring update, investors were treated to a solid beat on the ISM services headline which, at 52.4, counted as the strongest read since February.

With the exception of another sub-50 print for the employment gauge, nothing about the release was indicative of a slowdown. The new orders index rose nearly half a dozen points to a very solid 56.2 .

Recall that ISM services was a tick away from joining the manufacturing index in contraction territory in September. The upturn registered for October thus counts as a sigh of relief.

The anecdotes were mixed, with some respondents characterizing activity as “flat” and others describing a pickup. Donald Trump’s tariffs got a mention and so did the government shutdown but by and large, service providers seem to be doing ok.

The fly in the ointment was the prices gauge which — and there’s no nice way to say this — is way, way too damn high. October’s print — an eye-watering 70 — was the highest in three years.

As noted above, the employment index remained below 50 but rose a third month. 48.2’s the highest since May.

That juxtaposition’s indicative of the “tension” between the two sides of the Fed’s mandate. Risks to the labor market are indeed on the downside, but by every indication — including realized inflation, if that’s worth anything to you — price pressures are pervasive across the economy.

To reiterate my assessment from the ADP editorial, the odds of another Fed cut next month are better than even, but if we’re honest (don’t worry, we generally aren’t), the data’s hardly begging for more.