There wasn’t much Thursday in the way of evidence to support a US slowdown narrative. Unless you count a lackluster read on the manufacturing sector, which’ll be “great again” any day now. Just you wait.

Preliminary PMIs for July suggested activity in the sprawling US services sector expanded at a brisk pace early this month. Indeed, you might even call the 55.2 flash print on S&P Global’s index “hot.” Whatever your preferred adjective, it easily topped the 53 consensus and counted as a seven-month high.

Based on that readout, the world’s largest economy was off to a solid start in Q3 following what was likely a moderate expansion from April to June. “The latest reading signaled the fastest rate of growth recorded so far this year,” the color accompanying the release said, referencing the best composite print (54.6) since December.

As the figure shows, the situation in manufacturing’s not as cheery. In fact, it’s outright insipid. At 49.5, the factory gauge is in contraction territory for the first time this year.

“The private sector expansion became increasingly unbalanced, as manufacturing business conditions deteriorated in contrast to a strengthening services economy, the latter fueled by rising domestic demand,” the release went on.

Chris Williamson, S&P Global’s chief business economist, described the economy as “worryingly uneven,” noting that manufacturing’s now experiencing a hangover tied to “a fading boost from tariff front-running.”

Inflation pressures, Williamson warned, have “intensified.” In fact, selling prices rose for both goods and services by the most since 2022 early this month, according to S&P Global’s metrics. CPI inflation, Williamson said, is likely to “rise further above the Fed’s 2% target in the coming months.”

Don’t tell that to Donald Trump. Seriously, don’t. He might pay you a visit at your office.

Meanwhile, US jobless claims fell again in the week to July 19. At just 217,000, the initial filers headline is now the lowest since early April. Economists expected 226,000.

As the figure reminds you, claims are in free fall. This makes six declines in a row. The four-week average is now 224,500, the lowest in three months.

Continuing claims remained elevated near the highest levels since November of 2021, but in case you haven’t noticed, that ostensible recession harbinger hasn’t proven especially prescient post-pandemic.

Not to put too fine a point on it, but a 55-handle services sector PMI, the quickest PMI-implied selling-price inflation in three years and initial claims at 217,000 doesn’t exactly make a strong case for rate cuts, the perpetually beleaguered manufacturing sector notwithstanding.

But what do I know, right? What do you know? What does Jerome Powell know? What do any of us know? Nothing, apparently. By contrast, Chris Waller and Miki Bowman know we need cuts. And it’s just a coincidence that Donald Trump and Howard Lutnick wholeheartedly agree.