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Wholesale Inflation Negligible In The US
Wednesday's only tradable US macro update sent mixed messages about pipeline price pressure.
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I have been unexpectedly busier than I want to be in the last 2 weeks and only have time to read HReport. Thank you for your excellent coverage- I know I can trust your reporting. This is a perfect example:
“The issue here from a domestic political perspective is that it feels like some of us are trying just as hard to ferret out evidence that Trump’s policies are causing inflation as we did to explain why Joe Biden’s policies weren’t”
In what world do you think that Lutnick and Co wouldn’t Cook the Books to make it seem everything is all good? He has already terminated advisory committee’s to the BLS, has publicly come out and said he wants to change the way GDP is calculated.
I’m not saying that this data is incorrect, but to not question it, just as Trump always questioned Obama’s numbers, would be naive. You have a want to be dictator that wants to control the Federal Reserve, why would he not want to control BLS numbers. What happens if the trust of the economist at the BLS goes away, well, just ask Erica Groshen.
Three things. First, data mis-measurement in the CPI/PPI series is more likely to be a function of staff cuts which constrain the BLS’s capacity to cast a wide net than it is malicious intent, at least initially. Second, Wall Street and independent analysts will get wise to it eventually if there’s persistent mis-measurement, and unless we get to a place where the administration’s forcibly preventing the private sector from disseminating its own estimates, any such discrepancies will become a PR nightmare for Trump. Third, you have to have evidence to support the case for manipulation, otherwise you’re just Trump claiming the 2020 election was rigged — or Trump always questioning Obama’s numbers.
Here: https://heisenbergreport.com/2025/07/16/impugn-the-imputation/
There’s a heck of a lot of people working in government right now with an eye on the exits and an itch to get out. In case you hadn’t noticed, there’s a certain sort of person–the sort who’s naturally inclined towards public service–who absolutely delights in the notion of becoming the next big famous whistle blower. If administration leadership starts trying to “Cook the Books,” we’ll all be reading about it on the front page of the New York Times within days.
This actually points to the easiest reason to disbelieve most conspiracy theories. To pull them off, way too many people have to be involved to keep it secret. As Benjamin Franklin observed (and he actually wrote this, it’s not some apocryphal bit of internet lore), “Three can keep a secret, if two of them are dead.” My favorite is chem-trails. Never mind trying to distribute chemicals to the populace via the single least efficient method imaginable, can you imagine the scale such an operation would require?
Besides, Trump doesn’t need to cook the books. He just makes things up (The ECB has cut rates ELEVENTEEN TIMES!) and they get printed as facts.
Am I correct in thinking that PPI does not include imports?